NFL: Early Week 1 Lines

Hours after the NFL schedule was released last month, point spreads started to pop up for Week 1 of the regular season. This was before the NFL Draft so it was very early to post lines. However, the point spreads are good indicator to see what linemakers think about teams so this information is useful going into the season. Here are the consensus lines for Week 1 on May 29:

Steelers at Patriots (-2.5)

Packers (-5) at Bears

Chiefs at Texans (-1.5)

Browns at Jets (-3)

Colts (-2.5) at Bills

Dolphins (-2.5) at Redskins

Panthers (-4) at Jaguars

Seahawks (-3.5) at Rams

Saints at Cardinals (-2.5)

Lions at Chargers (-1.5)

Titans at Buccaneers (-3)

Bengals (-3.5) at Raiders

Ravens at Broncos (-4)

Giants at Cowboys (-5.5)

Eagles (-1) at Falcons

Vikings vs 49ers (-3.5)

A few observations about the lines: Continue reading

NFL: Year in Review

This year’s Super Bowl lived up to the hype to be a close game. The Seahawks were a yard away from taking the lead with under a minute left. Really a game that could’ve gone either way. I was on the wrong side of the game with my Seahawks pick. Despite not getting the side right, I finished 6-0 in my player props including easy winners on the props involving Tom Bray and Russell Wilson.

This season in general was a great success. I finished 48-29 in my picks during the regular season that I posted on this website. I also won two handicapping contests.

I finished first in the World Series of Handicapping contest with a 74-43-2 record. It was a contest where I picked seven sides and totals each week, and ranked my picks in order by confidence. Here is a link to the full standings page and a screenshot of the top five in the standings.


I also topped the 2014 Pregame Las Vegas SuperContest with a 55-30 record. In this contest I picked five game per week against the spread. Here is a link to the contest page and the top of the standings in a screenshot:


I want to thank everyone for following along this season. I’m excited for next season and will make improvements to posting information on this website.

NFL: Super Bowl Pick

This season’s Super Bowl reminds me of the same situation last year. The Seahawks needed good fortune to sneak out a home win the NFC Championship against San Francisco. This year they were on the right result of a Packers collapse but Seattle was unimpressive for 55 minutes. Last year the Broncos dominated the Patriots in the AFC Championship Game. Two weeks ago New England defeated Indianapolis in even more convincing fashion.

I remember the day after Seattle and Denver advanced, I strongly leaned towards taking the Broncos in the Super Bowl. I overreacted to what I saw from one weekend of games and my initial thoughts favored Denver. The point spread for this Super Bowl also reacted to what happened in Championship Weekend. If I remember correctly, Denver went from about a field goal underdog to a field goal favorite in the days following their AFC Championship win. The more I thought about it the more I started to like the Seahawks because they were the better defense and there was line value. I ended up picking Seattle and got that game right even though I didn’t predict a blowout.

This year I had the same thoughts after the Patriots and Seahawks advanced. I was leaning towards the Patriots especially if they were going to be a three-point underdog, which was the line before Championship Weekend. Just like in 2014 the line moved in the Patriots favor and now they are the favorites. When the line moved so much I changed by opinion and started to heavily favor Seattle. I’m going to pick Seattle for this game and here is what I think will happen in the game:

Continue reading

Basketball Picks: January 30

Trail Blazers (+7) over Hawks: This is one of my favorite picks on the year in the NBA. The situation sets up perfectly from an All-Star Game angle. The Atlanta Haws are riding a 17-game win streak including a 15-2 against the spread run (they failed to cover their last two games). The Hawks aren’t on national TV much and don’t get a lot of attention, but three players from Atlanta were picked to represent the Eastern Conference in the All-Star Game. The biggest All-Star snub was Portland point guard Damian Lillard who is the consideration for NBA MVP. I expect Lillard to play angry and focused to prove that he should’ve been picked to be on the All-Star team. Meanwhile the Atlanta players might feel overconfident that they were selected. The markets have finally caught up with Atlanta and they are now getting respect in this line. The Hawks might win this game but this spread is asking them to win by a margin. Expect Portland to be focused on the defensive end after giving 55 points on Wednesday to Cleveland’s Kyrie Irving.

Basketball Picks: January 27

It looked like I was going to bounce back one time in college basketball last night with Iowa State by missed free throws and sloppy play by the Cyclones allowed Texas to cover with a buzzer-beating layup. That’s the kind of year it’s been for me when picking college basketball but still a lot of season left. I have four picks tonight including two in the NBA. Don’t have time to analyze each game so just posting the pick. Check back later this week for a full Super Bowl prediction and the props that I like.

Pittsburgh (-4.5) over Virginia Tech

Kansas State (-1) over West Virginia

Raptors (-3.5) over Pacers

Bucks (+3) over Heat

Basketball Picks: January 17

Florida State (+1) over North Carolina State: North Carolina State hits the road after back-to-back home games against rivals Duke and North Carolina. Big letdown spot here.

Notre Dame (-6.5) over Miami: Miami just beat Duke at Cameron Indoor Stadium and now have to go to unfamiliar territory at Notre Dame. This line is too low.

Ohio State (+1) over Iowa: Ohio State is looking for revenge after the Hawkeyes beat them at home in their conference opener.

Michigan State (+3) over Maryland: Michigan State will also be seeking revenge after dropping their conference opener to Maryland in double overtime back on December 30.