Pac-12 Games to Watch

The Pac-12 looks like it will be a very entertaining conference in 2015 and one where I will look to pick a lot of games against the spread. Here are five games I will look to be involved in this season:

September 25- Stanford at Oregon state: Stanford has an early season conference test at USC on national TV. Six days later they go up to Oregon State. Not a game you have to bet because Oregon State is going through a rebuilding process but something to keep an eye on early in the season.

October 22- California at UCLA: In a odd scheduling situation, UCLA play on Thursday nights in back-to-back weeks. They play at Stanford before hosting California. Stanford is a physical team that could wear down UCLA at the line of scrimmage. This could setup well for a California team that will look to play in a high tempo offense. I’m also high on California this season and think they will finish third in the Pac-12 North. The Golden Bears are off a bye week and I think they will keep it close in Pasadena.

Continue reading

ACC Games to Circle

Here are five ACC games to remember when picking games against the spread this college football season:

October 17- Pittsburgh at Georgia Tech: Georgia Tech will be a favorite when they host Pittsburgh here. The spot is tough for the Yellow Jackets with a game at Clemson the week before and at home tilt against Florida State the week after. Pittsburgh has to make a long trip to Atlanta but I can see them covering the spread as underdogs.

October 17- Virginia Tech at Miami: Miami plays Florida State the week before in Tallahassee. The Hurricanes have lost by double digits in the last two seasons the week after playing the Seminoles. This will likely be built into the spread but still like Virginia Tech here.

October 31- Clemson at North Carolina State: Clemson’s game of the year is when they host Florida State a week later. This could be a tricky spot for the Tigers against an improved North Carolina State team.

Continue reading

Big Ten Games to Circle

Continuing a look at games to circle with the Big Ten. Here are six I picked out where you have the opportunity to fades teams:

October 10- Northwestern at Michigan: There’s a lot of excitement about Michigan this season with coach Jim Harbaugh in Ann Arbor. One of their bigger games on the schedule is against Michigan State at home. With Northwestern going to Michigan the week before, I can see the Wolverines overlooking the Wildcats.

October 17- Nebraska at Minnesota: I’m going to pick on Nebraska a few times here. They have a new coach and lost their star running back. The Cornhuskers host Wisconsin on October 10. Regardless of that result, I can see a major letdown from Nebraska when they travel to Minnesota a week after.

October 31- Nebraska at Purdue: Purdue is probably the worst team in the conference but this might be a time to back them against the spread. Nebraska plays Michigan State the week after and I’m not sure if the Cornhuskers will be too excited about being in West Lafayette on Halloween.

Continue reading

Big 12 Games to Circle

The Big 12 were the bridesmaids of college football in 2014, and watched while the four other major conferences participated in the College Football Playoff. TCU and Baylor were left out by the committee as Ohio State earned the fourth and final spot. The Buckeyes proved that it was the correct decision by winning it all, but the Horned Frogs and Bears had legitimate cases to be playing in the Rose Bowl or Sugar Bowl on January 1. The Big 12 looks to be one of the more exciting leagues this season. Here are four games to keep an eye on when picking against the spread:

October 24- Kansas Sate at Texas: Kansas State plays four games in as many weeks with the stretch wrapping up in Austin. They play at Oklahoma State, and host TCU and Oklahoma before traveling to meet Texas. Tough spot for Bill Snyder’s team especially with Texas coming out of a bye week. Look to back the Longhorns at home.

October 31- Oklahoma State at Texas Tech: Oklahoma State is a team I think can be one of the biggest surprises in college football. Winning 10 games isn’t out of reach for Mike Gundy’s team. I think the schedule breaks nicely for the Cowboys, who avoid TCU, Baylor and Oklahoma until November and those three games are in Stillwater. Before playing conference favorite TCU, Oklahoma State has to play at Texas Tech. Always seems like a tricky trip for Big 12 teams and one that Oklahoma State might overlook.

Continue reading

SEC Games to Circle

It’s a slow time in the sports calendar, which makes it a perfect time to start preparing for football season. I looked through the conference schedules for the SEC, Big Ten, Big 12, ACC and Pac-12 to look for favorable situations to support teams and bad situations to fade teams. Games are at least two months away, and I wouldn’t automatically pick these games but it’s something that could be helpful down the road. I will post the other four conferences next week. For now, here are games you should keep an eye on in the SEC:

September 26- Missouri at Kentucky: Missouri has three favorable non-conference games before their first SEC game at Kentucky. The Tigers will likely be a favorite against an up-and-coming Wildcats team that needs to win these games if they want to make a bowl. Missouri plays South Carolina the week after. Last year the Tigers shockingly lost to Indiana the week before playing the Gamecocks in a classic “look ahead” situation. Missouri may be looking past Kentucky with bigger games on deck so possibly take Kentucky if they are an underdog in this game.

October 10- Georgia at Tennessee: Georgia is coming off a home game against Alabama. A trip to Knoxville is less than ideal the week after such a big contest for the Bulldogs. The Volunteers host Arkansas the week before and a have a bye the week after. Tennessee might end up being a favorite in this game and I would likely take them if the spread is a south of a field goal.

October 17- Alabama at Texas A&M: Alabama has had favorable conference schedules the last few seasons. However, things change in 2015 as they draw Georgia and Tennessee from the SEC East. They play the two SEC East foes in part of a four-week stretch that also includes games against Arkansas and Texas A&M. The game against Texas A&M is on the road and I can see the Crimson Tide slipping up here. The Aggies will have revenge on their mind after being trounced 59-0 against Alabama last season. Texas A&M also has a favorable early season schedule, and they don’t leave the state of Texas until the eighth week of the season. I don’t know if Alabama will lose this game but I can see them failing to cover the spread.

Continue reading

NFL: Early Week 1 Lines

Hours after the NFL schedule was released last month, point spreads started to pop up for Week 1 of the regular season. This was before the NFL Draft so it was very early to post lines. However, the point spreads are good indicator to see what linemakers think about teams so this information is useful going into the season. Here are the consensus lines for Week 1 on May 29:

Steelers at Patriots (-2.5)

Packers (-5) at Bears

Chiefs at Texans (-1.5)

Browns at Jets (-3)

Colts (-2.5) at Bills

Dolphins (-2.5) at Redskins

Panthers (-4) at Jaguars

Seahawks (-3.5) at Rams

Saints at Cardinals (-2.5)

Lions at Chargers (-1.5)

Titans at Buccaneers (-3)

Bengals (-3.5) at Raiders

Ravens at Broncos (-4)

Giants at Cowboys (-5.5)

Eagles (-1) at Falcons

Vikings vs 49ers (-3.5)

A few observations about the lines: Continue reading

NFL: Year in Review

This year’s Super Bowl lived up to the hype to be a close game. The Seahawks were a yard away from taking the lead with under a minute left. Really a game that could’ve gone either way. I was on the wrong side of the game with my Seahawks pick. Despite not getting the side right, I finished 6-0 in my player props including easy winners on the props involving Tom Bray and Russell Wilson.

This season in general was a great success. I finished 48-29 in my picks during the regular season that I posted on this website. I also won two handicapping contests.

I finished first in the World Series of Handicapping contest with a 74-43-2 record. It was a contest where I picked seven sides and totals each week, and ranked my picks in order by confidence. Here is a link to the full standings page and a screenshot of the top five in the standings.

WSHO-3

I also topped the 2014 Pregame Las Vegas SuperContest with a 55-30 record. In this contest I picked five game per week against the spread. Here is a link to the contest page and the top of the standings in a screenshot:

SuperContest

I want to thank everyone for following along this season. I’m excited for next season and will make improvements to posting information on this website.