Last week I went 12-4 against the spread. I picked the Bears last night so I am 0-1 this week. No video this week due to technical difficulties, so I will write out my explanations for each pick.
An observation about this week is that there are four games where a home underdog is getting between 2.5-3.5 points. The Panthers, Dolphins, Seahawks and Rams are the home teams that are about a field goal underdog at home. Last week the Chiefs, Cardinals and Buccaneers were home underdogs between 2.5-3.5 points. The Chiefs lost a blowout and the Cardinals and Buccaneers covered and won outright.
My pick for week 2 of the NFL season against the spread:
Lines as of Friday afternoon
Buccaneers +7 over Giants; I believe in the Buccaneers this year and that motivational coach Greg Schiano can turn the team into a playoff contender. I like the Giants too, but not at home. They were 4-4 at home last season and narrowly beat the Dolphins and Bills. I think the Giants win a close one, but the Buccaneers will take a lot of positives from this game.
Cardinals +14 over Patriots; This is a big line and west coast team going at least two time zones east for an early start. The Patriots went under the radar last week and played well. The Cardinals upset the Seahawks at home. Kevin Kolb gets the start at quarterback for the Cardinals. He might be bad but the Cardinals are a tough team to score against. I can see the Patriots getting off to a slow start and the game being close.
Colts +2 over Vikings; Andrew Luck got the first game jitters out of the way and is ready for his home debut. I think they win against the Vikings and ESPN will dedicate 20 percent of Monday’s SportsCenter to Luck.
Panthers +2.5 over Saints; I don’t like the Saints this year in general, especially away from their dome. I think Cam Newton will have a sophomore slump, but will make a big play to defeat the Saints.
Bills -3 over Chiefs; Both teams burned me last weekend, but I still think they will bounce back eventually. The Bills are solid at home and should win. By the way if my AFC playoff teams are correct, this could be a preview of a wild card game.
Ravens +2 over Eagles; Do you believe that Joe Flacco can put together back-to-back stellar performances? If you do pick the Ravens, if not go with the home team.
Raiders -2.5 over Dolphins; The Raiders are an away favorite. Yes, the same Raiders that couldn’t execute a punt on Monday night. Still, they are better than Miami and they will beat the Dolphins in a game that 46 people will watch on TV.
Bengals -7 over Browns; If you thought Brandon Weeden was bad last week, just wait until he has to go on the road. Yikes!
Texans -7 over Jaguars; The Jaguars were impressive last week but I don’t think they will keep it up. Texans will win and then send thank you cards to NFL schedule makers for having them play the Dolphins and Jaguars to start the season.
Seahawks +3 over Cowboys; Seattle has a great home field advantage and the Cowboys might be a bit overconfident. I think Seattle wins outright. Tony Romo will play great, the Cowboys will make mistakes, and Romo will get blamed for the loss on Monday.
Rams +3.5 over Redskins; Another NFC East team that might be overconfident is the Redskins. The Rams gave the Lions a scare on the road last week, and I think they somehow win at home. RGIII will struggle.
Jets +5 over Steelers; The Jets surprised me last week with an offensive explosion. Pittsburgh failed to get revenge last week against Denver, but they will jump on the chance to get revenge against Tebow. Steelers must win and they will prevail in a close one.
Titans +6 over Chargers; Bold prediction. Chargers win a close game. Bolder prediction: Chris Johnson will rush for more than four yards.
49ers -7 over Lions; I am confident the 49ers will cover because don’t think the Lions are good. The more intriguing bet is over/under 28 times NBC shows or talks about the Harbaugh/Schwartz handshake.
Falcons -3 over Broncos; The Falcons are strong at home and I’m not fully sold on the Broncos. If Denver wins this week then I probably will, but the Falcons will move to 2-0.
Five teams most confident in: Bills, Bengals, Texans, 49ers, Falcons