NFL Picks: Week 9 Trends

On Monday night I made very early picks for week 9. Here are some statistics to consider when finalizing your picks for the weekend. All records are against the spread for this season.

Chiefs +8 @ Chargers

Key trends: Away underdogs are 4-1-1 on Wednesday or Thursday night this season. Eastern or central time zone teams going 2+ zones west are 5-8.

Other notes: The Chargers beat the Chiefs in week 4. The Chiefs are 0-2 against their division. The Chargers are 2-1 against their division.

Broncos -3.5 @ Bengals

Key trends: The Bengals were on bye last week and teams coming off bye are 10-6. West teams going 2+ plus time zones for 1 pm ET game are 4-6. Home underdogs that are getting between 2.5 and 3.5 points are 11-6.

Other notes: The Broncos are 1-0 against the AFC North.

Cardinals +11 @ Packers 

Key trends: The Cardinals played on Monday night and teams are 6-6-1 the week after playing on Monday. West teams going 2+ plus time zones for 1 pm ET game are 4-6. When the spread is higher than 10, favorites and underdogs are 4-4.

Other Notes: The Packers were 10-point favorites on Monday. The Cardinals are 0-1 against the NFC North. The Packers 1-2 against the NFC West.

Dolphins -2.5 @ Colts 

Key trend: Home underdogs that are getting between 2.5 and 3.5 points are 11-6.

Other notes: The Dolphins are 0-1 against the AFC South. The Colts are 0-1 against the AFC East. Also, the Colts are 3-0 (spread and outright) at home against non-division opponents.

Ravens -3.5 @ Browns

Key trends: The Ravens were on bye last week (see Broncos @ Bengals). Home underdogs that are getting between 2.5 and 3.5 points are 11-6.

Other notes: The Ravens beat the Browns in week 4, but the Browns covered. The Ravens are 1-1 against their own division. The Browns are 2-0-1 against their division.

Bills +10 @ Texans

Key trends: Both teams were on bye last week. When the spread is higher than 10, favorites and underdogs are 4-4.

Other notes: The Bills are 0-1 against the AFC South. The Texans are 1-1 against the AFC East. In three home victories, the Texans have won those games by an average of 24.7 points.

Panthers +3 @ Redskins 

Key trends: The Panthers are 0-2 against the NFC East. The Redskins are 2-1 against the  NFC South, and their only loss was at home.

Lions -3.5 @ Jaguars 

Key trend: Home underdogs that are getting between 2.5 and 3.5 points are 11-6.

Other notes: The Lions are 0-1 against the AFC South. The Jaguars are 2-1 against the NFC North, and their only loss was at home. The Jaguars are 0-3 at home (Those three games were in the late afternoon and this game will be an early afternoon game).

Bears -3.5 @ Titans 

Key trend: Home underdogs that are getting between 2.5 and 3.5 points are 11-6.

Other notes: The Bears are 2-0 agains the AFC South. The Titans are 1-1 against the NFC North.

Vikings +5 @ Seahawks

Key trends: The Vikings played last Thursday night and teams playing after Wednesday/Thursday night are 7-5-2 the next week. Eastern or central time zone teams going 2+ zones west are 5-8.

Other notes: The Vikings are 2-0 against the NFC West, but both wins were at home. The Seahawks are 1-1 against the NFC North and 3-0 (spread and outright) at home. This will be the first game this season where the Seahawks are home favorites.

Buccaneers +1 @ Raiders 

Key trends: The Vikings played last Thursday night and teams playing after Wednesday/Thursday night are 7-5-2 the next week. Eastern or central time zone teams going 2+ zones west are 5-8.

Other notes: The Buccaneers are 1-0 against the AFC West. The Raiders are 1-0 against the NFC South.

Steelers +3.5 @ Giants 

Key trends: The Steelers are 1-1 against the NFC East. The Giants are 1-0 against the AFC South.

Cowboys +4 @ Falcons

Key trend: The home favorite is 4-2-1 on Sunday night.

Other notes: The Cowboys are 1-1 against the NFC South. The Falcons are 2-0 against the NFC East.

Eagles +3.5 @ Saints 

Key trend: Away underdogs are 3-2 on Monday night.

Other notes: The Eagles are 0-1 against the NFC South. The Saints are 0-1 against the NFC East.

One thought on “NFL Picks: Week 9 Trends

  1. Pingback: NFL Picks: Week 9 Thursday Night « NateJacobson.com

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out /  Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out /  Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out /  Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out /  Change )

Connecting to %s