Auburn hosts Arkansas in an early SEC contest on Saturday. I think the Tigers are giving too many points to the Razorbacks. I’m down on Auburn this season after having everything go their way in 2013. They needed a late touchdown to beat Mississippi State at home early last season. Auburn used two miraculous plays in back-to-back games against Georgia and Alabama late in the season. The Tigers lose their star running back Tre Mason and best their offensive lineman Greg Robinson.

Arkansas dropped their last nine games in 2013 as part of a very difficult schedule. It’s unclear to tell how much the Razorbacks have improved, if any, but they did show promise late last season when they only lost at LSU by four points.

It looks like Auburn won’t start quarterback Nick Marshall after his arrest this summer for marijuana possession. Marshall figures to play but might sit out a few series. This feels a little similar to when Texas A&M benched Johnny Manziel for the first half of their opener last season and the Aggies started slow.

There’s also rivalry brewing between Auburn coach Gus Malzahn and Arkansas coach Bret Bielema. It started when Auburn defeated Arkansas 35-17 last season and Bielema accused an Auburn player of faking an injury. Bielema also took shots a Malzahn this summer by speaking against no-huddle offenses and player safety. Bielema will make sure his team is ready when they travel to Auburn this weekend.

All those factors is why I like Arkanas to cover the spread.

Pick: Arkansas (+20) over Auburn