Stanford under 8.5 wins (+105): Stanford returns quarterback Kevin Hogan and wide receiver Ty Montgomery. However, there were some significant losses to David’s Shaw team. Running back Tyler Gaffney, who rushed for 1,750 yards last season, is gone. The Cardinal have to replace most of their offensive line. Defensive coordinator Derek Mason took the head coaching job at Vanderbilt. Stanford’s schedule is brutal. They host USC in week 2 and have trips to Arizona State and UCLA. They also play at Washington, Notre Dame and Oregon. Stanford will have a down year for their standards under Shaw.
Oregon State over 7 wins (-115): Oregon State has an an explosive offense with quarterback Sean Mannion under center. They need a weapon to step up and replace Brandin Cooks but the Beavers return their next four most productive receivers from 2013. The schedule is manageable. They have to travel to USC but their other Pac-12 South opponents are Colorado, Utah (home) and Arizona State (home). Oregon State showed a lot of promise in the final regular season game against Oregon and also in their bowl victory against Boise State last season.
UCLA under 9.5 wins (-115) and USC over 9 wins (even): I have USC winning the Pac-12 South. The Trojans play Stanford, Oregon State, Washington State and California in the North. UCLA draws the three big boys in Oregon, Washington and Stanford for cross-divisional games along with Colorado. I think USC will win at UCLA in late November.
Utah over 4.5 wins (-175): Utah played good teams tough at home last season. They even upset Stanford when the Cardinal were ranked No. 5. After a two-year bowl absence, I think Utah can win six games if a few close results go their way. Look for new offensive coordinator Dave Christensen to greatly improve the the Utes’ attack.
4. Oregon State
5. Washington State
3. Arizona State