The Patriots are a five-point favorite in Miami. That’s implying that they would be about a 10-point favorite if this game was in Foxboro, and I think the line is too high. The Patriots defense vastly improved this offseason with the addition of Darrelle Revis. Vince Wilfork is back from injury, which will make players like Chandler Jones better on the defensive line. The offense needs Rob Gronkowski to stay healthy or there might be some problems for Tom Brady this season. I think the Patriots will win the division but they aren’t a top five team in the NFL.

The Dolphins had a pretty good season last year especially when you consider the Richie Incognito distractions. The offensive line is much improved and Knowshon Moreno was added to provide depth at running back. Don’t be surprised if Ryan Tannehill has a big game against New England.

Miami beat New England at home last season 24-20. I expect the game to have a similar feel with the Patriots coming out on top at the end on a late field goal or touchdown.

Pick: Dolphins (+5)