I started the week 0-1 after picking the Steelers in the Thursday night game. I’m now 2-3 on the season and 6-11 overall in contest picks. I’m picking four more game this weekend including an over/under. Hyperlinks for analysis are provided below. For the other games I’ll provide a brief sentence or two on the side I would take in a contest.
Lions at Panthers (-3)
My line: Panthers -1.5
Analysis: It looks like Newton will play but he hasn’t spent much time with his receivers in the preseason. Lions are coming off a Monday night game playing at home so I wouldn’t pick them with confidence.
Pick: Pass (Contest: Lions)
Dolphins (-1) at Bills
My line: Bills -1.5
Click for analysis
Hard to pick against the Seahawks right now but I’m going to do it against a Chargers team I trust to bounce back. The Seahawks convincingly won at home in their regular season opener against the Packers. Now they go on the road, where the Seahawks are a much different team compared to at home.
The Chargers defense stood tall for three quarters on Monday night in Arizona. Then they tired out as the offense failed to sustain long fourth quarter drives. I think the defense turns in another strong performance at home on Sunday.
There is value on the Chargers as I think the Seahawks should only be a field goal favorite. Also the Seahawks might be looking ahead to a Week 3 home date against Denver in a Super Bowl rematch. The line might be higher than I expected because of the shorter rest for San Diego. However, the Chargers played on Week 1 Monday night last season and then crossed three time zones to beat Philadelphia on the road six days later.
Pick: Chargers (+6) over Seahawks
Both these teams have short weeks to prepare after Monday night games. The Cardinals are making a cross-country flight and playing early in the afternoon. Arizona’s offense struggled to put together many drives until the fourth quarter against San Diego. Their defense was solid and kept Arizona in the game before they won.
The Giants offense was a mess in Detroit. Eli Manning picked up right where he left off last season. The Giants have a hard time running the ball and their offensive line isn’t reliable. The early start time for a west coast team, a short weak for both teams and two starting quarterbacks on the downside of the careers is why I like this game to go under the point total.
Pick: Under 43 in Cardinals vs Giants
I looked closely at every college football game and only found two games that I really like this week. I was close of picking East Carolina and Boston College but the lines weren’t high enough. I started 5-5 in the first two weeks after a 2-1 record last Saturday. I’ve done well on my pool plays and hope to continue selecting winners there. Here are the two games I am picking on Saturday:
South Carolina (+6) over Georgia
Arkansas (+3) over Texas Tech
UL Monroe (+31) over LSU
Notre Dame (-28) over Purdue
Kentucky (+18) over Florida
Arkansas travels to Lubbock on Saturday to play Texas Tech. The Razorbacks are a three-point underdog but I think they will win straight up. Arkansas ended their almost year-long losing streak last weekend against Nicholls State. You can’t take much stock from that game but it is a step in the right direction especially after playing Auburn closely for a half in Week 1. Quarterback Brandon Allen has had a solid start to the season and running Alex Collins can do damage to the Red Raiders suspect defense.
Texas Tech is playing their last non-conference game of the season. They had close calls against Central Arkansas and UTEP in the first two weeks. The offense has been fine under quarterback Davis Webb but the defense has let up yards and points.
Texas Tech’s struggling defense is why I like Arkansas to win this game. Also the Razorbacks know they need to win this game before SEC play begins.
Pick: Arkansas (+3) over Texas Tech