I mentioned in my Thursday night college football preview that I have struggled figuring out the games I want to pick this week. I picked a lot of games early last week and finished with a 4-1 record. There’s a few tricky lines this week and I want to wait until some lines move. I’ll likely make 3-5 picks but some picks might be posted as late as Saturday night.

I don’t have a feel for the Thursday night game. I liked Tampa Bay in the preseason and wasn’t a fan of Atlanta before the season. I’m still not sold on the Falcons but the Buccaneers cause for real concern and I have reevaluated my stance on Lovie Smith’s team. Tampa Bay lost to Derek Anderson and Austin Davis so I think Matt Ryan can cause even more trouble for the Tampa Bay defense. Offensively, Josh McCown has been below average and may have just been a product of a system for less than half a season in Chicago.

The argument for Tampa Bay is they are likely getting Doug Martin back, and maybe they will flourish in a more familiar underdog role away from home. I wouldn’t pick the Falcons giving a touchdown if I didn’t have too. For the sake of a contest pick I would lean towards the home team.

Pick: Pass (Contest: Falcons)