College Football: September 20 Picks

Thursday Pick

I picked Kanas State (+9.5) as part of a pool play on Thursday. I wasn’t confident enough to make it an official pick. I thought both teams played sloppy. Auburn could’ve won by a lot more and Kansas State could’ve won straight up if they made their field goals or didn’t throw a goal line interception. Moving on the this weekend, I had trouble with these games so I have one pick that I am very confident about. The teams I have the strongest leans towards against the spread are North Carolina, Mississippi State, Northern Illinois and Miami. Here’s my one pick this Saturday along with the other pool plays:

Under 51 in Florida vs Alabama

Pool Plays

Mississippi State (+9.5) over LSU

South Carolina (-21) over Vanderbilt

Oregon (-23.5) over Washington State

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Florida vs Alabama Pick

My only college football pick of the week will also be the first over/under pick I have made this season. I like the Florida-Alabama game to go under the total of 51. The SEC has seen a lot of high scoring games this season involving Texas A&M, South Carolina and Georgia. However, Florida and Alabama are two on the best defensive teams in the conference and both teams have question marks on offense.

Florida may have been looking ahead to this game when they came out flat against Kentucky and need triple overtime to beat the Wildcats. Florida ran and threw the ball well but Jeff Driskel will need to play much better against Alabama than he did against Kentucky. Teams that can run a spread offense have given trouble to Alabama and Florida doesn’t have a spread offense where they open up the playbook.

Alabama quarterback Blake Sims hasn’t had to be spectacular this season. The senior has relied on wide receiver Amari Cooper who already has 33 receptions in three games. If there is one team that can neutralize Cooper, it’s Florida with star cornerback Vernon Hargreaves III. That will be the matchup to watch on Saturday and I think Hargreaves III can contain Cooper.

Florida and coach Will Muschamp know they need this game so I think they will bring their best defensive effort. I also think Alabama will be the dominant Alabama from the past with their defense. Driskel and Sims aren’t quarterbacks I expect to lead their teams on many scoring drives. That’s why I like the under in this SEC game.

Pick: Under 51 in Florida vs Alabama