NFL: Week 5 Picks

I like quite a few games in the NFL this week but narrowed it down to three very confident picks. I started the week 1-0 in contest picks. Here is my thoughts on the rest of Week 5:

Bears at Panthers (-3)

My line: Panthers -0.5

Analysis: The Bears are the better team but offensive line injuries is why I’m only leaning towards Chicago.

Pick: Pass (Contest: Bears)

Browns at Titans (-1.5)

My line: Titans -1

Analysis: Really don’t know what to expect from this game. The Titans have struggled three straight games and the Browns are coming off a bye. I’ll give the edge to Brian Hoyer.

Pick: Pass (Browns)

Rams at Eagles (-7)

My line: Eagles -6.5

Analysis: Eagles haven’t impressed me at all this season. The Rams are coming off a bye and Jeff Fisher has a great history as an underdog. I think the Rams can win this game straight up.

Pick: Rams

Falcons at Giants (-4)

My line: Giants -2

Analysis: Giants getting a lot of love after two wins and I think there is an overreaction. Falcons have their own issue on the offensive line and struggle in the outdoors. Small lean toward Atlanta against the spread.

Pick: Pass (Falcons)

Buccaneers at Saints (-11)

My line: Saints -11.5

Analysis: The Saints could beat the Buccaneers by three touchdowns. I can also see the game being very close. I’ll lean Saints because they are at home.

Pick: Pass (Saints)

Texans at Cowboys (-6)

My line: Cowboys -2.5

Analysis: Cowboys are coming off a huge win in front of a national audience against the Saints. I think the Cowboys have a let down game at home against an out of conference opponent. I can see the Texans forcing a turnover or two, and jumping out to an early lead. The Cowboys then will abandon the running game for the most part while attempting a comeback.

Pick: Texans

Bills at Lions (-7)

My line: Lions -7.5

Analysis: I think this will be a lower-scoring game. Kyle Orton isn’t an upgrade over E.J. Manuel but I see Buffalo relying on their running game. Calvin Johnson’s injury hurts the Lions offense who is going against former coach Jim Schwartz.

Pick: Pass (Bills)

Ravens at Colts (-3.5)

My line: Colts -3

Analysis: Baltimore has played well the last three games. The Colts are coming off two blowout win against Jacksonville and Tennessee. I see this game being decided by a field goal.

Pick: Pass (Ravens)

Steelers (-7) at Jaguars

My line: Steelers -4.5

Analysis: There’s some value on the Jaguars but they are 0-4 against the spread. Not going to confidently pick them until they win a game.

Pick: Pass (Jaguars)

Cardinals at Broncos (-7.5)

My line: Broncos -6

Analysis: Cardinals were playing great football going into their bye. Unfortunately the timing of the bye wasn’t ideal but I think they keep the game within a touchdown. Broncos also had a bye last week.

Pick: Pass (Cardinals)

Chiefs at 49ers (-6)

My line: 49ers -6.5

Analysis: The Chiefs are on a short week after blowing out the Patriots on Monday Night Football. I have a strong lean towards the 49ers because I think the Chiefs will have a letdown game. San Francisco allowed three defensive or special team touchdowns last week against the Eagles.

Pick: Pass (49ers)

Jets at Chargers (-7)

My line: Chargers -7.5

Analysis: Chargers have looked really good this season and Jets have struggled mightily on offensive.

Pick: Pass (Chargers)

Bengals (-1.5) at Patriots

My line: Patriots -2

Analysis: Not overreacting to the Patriots struggles. I think they will bounce back after getting embarrassed on national TV. The Bengals started well but shouldn’t be the favorite.

Pick: Patriots

Seahawks (-7.5) at Redskins

My line: Seahawks -6

Analysis: Kirk Cousins will have a better game than he did last week. I think the Redskins game plan will involve more running and this will be a lower scoring game.

Pick: Pass (Redskins)

 

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