Big AFC South showdown on Thursday night when Indianapolis travels to Houston. I don’t have an official pick for this game and want to explain my reasoning. The Colts are a three-point favorite on the road. If you take away Houston’s home field advantage then Indianapolis would be a 5.5 or six-point favorite. It would make them over a touchdown favorite if this game was at Lucas Oil Stadium, and that line would be way too high and never get posted. So there is definitely value on the Texans here who I think would be a two-point underdog on a neutral field against the Colts.
The problem with Houston is they are coming off an overtime game in Dallas on a short week. The Texans allowed 75 plays to the Cowboys, and you have to wonder if the defense will be tired on Thursday night. The Colts dominated the Ravens statistically on Sunday and ran 80 plays of their own.
The value is on the Texans but the situation favors the Colts. That’s why I wouldn’t pick this game but would take the Texans +3 in a contest. I will be posting my college football and NFL picks either Thursday night or Friday morning this week.