College Football: Week 12 Picks

I have seven picks in Week 12 of college football. I previewed the important games earlier in this week before the lines were released. I ended up picking six of those games so you can read my analysis there. Here are my picks and pool plays for Week 12:

South Carolina (+7) over Florida: This is the one game I didn’t preview earlier in the week because it has no impact on the College Football Playoff. South Carolina has blown three fourth quarter leads this year but I think they make sure to play 60 minutes in Gainesville. Florida doesn’t have the offense to be a touchdown favorite here and I think the Gamecocks win straight up.

Georgia (-2) over Auburn

Stanford (-7.5) over Utah

Alabama (-8) over Mississippi State

Arkansas (-2) over LSU

Florida State (-3) over Miami

Maryland (+12) over Michigan State

Pool Plays

Penn State (-11) over Temple

Ohio State (-14) over Minnesota

Iowa (-3.5) over Illinois

Nebraska (+6.5) over Wisconsin

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College Football: Week 12 Preview

The College Football Playoff picture became a little more clear after Saturday’s action. A group of teams control their own destiny to make the top four while four other teams picked up their second loss of the season to likely end any national title hopes. After the dust cleared in Week 11, there appears to be many great situational opportunities to pick games in Week 12. Here are some early thoughts on games before any lines are released:

Contenders (Teams that have a shot at the Playoff)

Mississippi State at Alabama: Mississippi State has had this game circled since they beat Auburn almost a month ago. It will likely decide the SEC West winner after Alabama survived at LSU. Alabama is a much better team at home this season especially on offense. Don’t be surprised if Alabama is a touchdown favorite against the No. 1 team because they are a more talented team and they have to win. The Bulldogs might be able to lose this game and still make the Playoff if they beat Ole Miss at the end of the season.

Florida State at Miami: There were rumors earlier this week that Miami would be a favorite in this game. I highly doubt that will happen but the Hurricanes have definitely gained some respect over the last month. They dominated Cincinnati, Virginia Tech and North Carolina but those three teams haven’t impressed anyone this season. Florida State has been overrated for most of the year but I think they should be at least a field goal favorite on Saturday. Keep in mind that Miami doesn’t have much of a home field advantage and Florida State fans will travel well to this game.

TCU at Kansas: The Horned Frogs got past the difficult part on their conference schedule with only one loss. A trip to Texas on Thanksgiving night looks like the only test left this season. It will be interesting to see if the Playoff Committee ranked TCU higher than a one-loss Mississippi State. I think they would. Continue reading

NFL: Week 10 Picks

Here are my Week 10 NFL picks and the rest of the contest picks:

Chiefs (-2) over Bills

Under 49 in Saints vs 49ers

Under 46 in Buccaneers vs Falcons

Under 43 in Cardinals vs Rams

Contest Picks 

Cowboys (-7) over Jaguars

Dolphins (+3) over Lions

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College Football: Week 11 Picks

Here are my Week 11 college football picks and the rest of the pool plays:

Kansas State (+6) over TCU: A Bill Snyder team getting points is usually a safe pick. Kansas State’s only loss was against Auburn so both these teams are in contention for the College Football Playoff. I think Kansas State will try to control the ball to keep TCU’s explosive offense off the field. That’s why I also like the under in this game.

Under 58 in TCU vs Kansas State: See above

Under 45 in LSU vs Alabama: I can see LSU winning this game and because of that I like the under. It might be similar to the game two weeks ago when the Tigers upset Ole Miss 10-7. I don’t think Alabama’s offense will be as efficient on the road in Baton Rogue. Remember that these teams played a 9-6 game three years ago before meeting again in the National Championship.

Michigan State (-4) over Ohio State: Michigan State is the better team and are coming off a bye. The Spartans are playing at home in primetime, so I give the advantage to quarterback Connor Cook over Ohio State freshman J.T. Barrett.

Pool Plays

Kentucky (+10) over Georgia: The next two games are only pool plays but I was very close to making them official picks. I make most of my college football picks based on scheduling situations. Georgia is in a terrible scheduling spot this week. They just played Florida and play Auburn next week. So this Kentucky game is sandwiched between two big games for the Bulldogs. The matchup next week against Auburn is even more important because of how the Tigers beat the Bulldogs last season. Georgia also had their College Football Playoff dreams crushed last week when they lost to Florida. With no shot a winning the title and I think Georgia comes out flat in Lexington. That being said, the line has probably adjusted taking those factors into consideration. So I would lean towards Kentucky but would like this game a lot more if the spread was a few points higher.

Purdue (+17) over Wisconsin: The Badgers are one of four teams in the Big Ten West with one loss. The other three are Nebraska, Iowa  and Minnesota. Those are Wisconsin’s three opponents after this game in West Lafayette. So this is a lookahead scenario against Purdue with bigger games on deck. Purdue has improved in conference play and even out gained Nebraska last week in a 21-point loss. The home team is getting a lot of points here but there’s going to be cold and rainy weather for an early kickoff on Saturday. That climate favors Wisconsin’s game plan of running of the ball and playing strong defense. That’s why I would only lean Purdue in this game.

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November 6 Football Picks

Another NFL and college game on Thursday night. The NFL game sees the Battle of Ohio with a lot at stake in the wide open AFC North. Not making this an official pick but I would go with the Bengals at home and over the total because that seems like what happens in all primetime games. The college game is an ACC game that ESPN probably regrets scheduling because Wake Forest is so bad. Here is the contest pick and pool play for Thursday:

Bengals (-7) over Browns

Clemson (-21) over Wake Forest