NFL: Conference Championship Preview and Props

Packers at Seahawks -7.5

The only question in this game is how healthy is Aaron Rodgers? The Packers quarterback looked more comfortable as the game went on against Dallas but the Seahawks defense is much stronger the the Cowboys. I think there is a slight overreaction to this line with the Rodgers injury but don’t feel comfortable picking against Seattle at home. I would pass on picking this game but like the following props:

Aaron Rodgers UNDER 260.5 total passing yards: I think the Packers are going to run the ball early to make sure their defense stays off the field. Rodgers is banged up and the Seahawks have an elite secondary.

James Starks OVER 15.5 total rushing yards: This is a little risky because Starks is the backup but I think the Packers will need to use two running backs if they want to run the ball. Eddie Lacy was limited in practice earlier this week so there’s a better chance of Starks getting touches.

Marshawn Lynch OVER 87.5 total rushing yards: The Packers defense allowed 123 yards to an injured Demarco Murray last round. Lynch has 110 yards on 20 carries against the Packers in Week 1. Expect Lynch to have another 20+ carry, 100+ yard outing.

Luke Wilson OVER 27.5 total receiving yards and OVER 2.5 receptions: The Packers allowed six receptions and 71 yards to Jason Witten last week. I don’t trust the Seahawks wide receivers and Wilson is becoming a bigger part of Seattle’s offense.

Colts at Patriots -6

The Patriots were in serious danger of being eliminated by Baltimore but they survived that test. After a slow start against the Ravens, I expect the Patriots to jump on the Colts early. Indianapolis looked impressive last week but I think that had more to do with Peyton Manning being injured.

Pick: Patriots (-6) over Colts

Props I like for this game:

Dan Herron UNDER 57.5 total rushing yards: The Colts might abandon their running game if they get down early. Herron would still have an impact in the passing game but I think he is held when rushing the football.

T.Y.  Hilton UNDER 72.5 total receiving yards: Hilton will be shadowed by Darrelle Revis and force Andrew Luck to throw to other options.

Donte Moncrief OVER 34.5 total receiving yards: Moncrief will benefit from the Patriots focusing on Hilton and he’s a better option than Hakeem Nicks and aging Reggie Wayne.

Coby Fleener OVER 40.5 total receiving yards and OVER 3.5 receptions: Fleener will be involved in the offense just like he was when the Colts played the Patriots earlier this year. Fleener had seven receptions for 144 yards in that game.

Tom Brady UNDER 285.5 total passing yards: The Patriots will run the ball more this week after only seven rushing attempts by running backs last week. Don’t expect Brady to have to throw for over 300 yards to win this game.

Rob Gronkowski OVER 79.5 total receiving yards: This is a high total but I think Gronk will reach at least 90 yards receiving. He’s a matchup nightmare for the Colts.

 

 

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