Season win totals in the NFL are one of my favorite ways to attack the season. Last year I went 5-0 with season win totals involving the Vikings, Saints, Buccaneers, Steelers and Browns. There’s a lot of value in these long-term props. The only issue is waiting until December and January to know if you cashed a winner.
My favorite season win total for the 2016 NFL season is over 8 (-135) on the Baltimore Ravens, which is a team I identified back in January. After all the injuries, I was confident that Baltimore would bounce back after a 5-11 season.
Baltimore has been one of the most consistent NFL teams since John Harbaugh took over in 2008. The Ravens have made the playoff six times in that span and the only time they finished with a losing record was last season.
I would throw everything about the 2015 campaign out the window. The team was ravaged by injuries. Quarterback Joe Flacco, running back Justin Forsett, wide receiver Steve Smith and linebacker Terrell Suggs all suffered season-ending blows. Those key players will be back for this season. Another player who got injured before the season was wide receiver Breshad Perriman. The rookie didn’t play a snap last season and is expected to give a big boost to the Ravens offense.
Because the Ravens struggled last season, they are being priced as an average team. The bias from last year is where value is created. The Ravens would have to go under .500 for me to lose this bet and that has been a rarity in the Harbaugh era. Well-coached teams off a down year are usually a good bet to go over their win total. I’m picking the Ravens as the season win total bet I’m most confident in.
Pick: Ravens over 8 (-135)