Didn’t write last week but went 3-1 with the picks I tweeted in Week 6. Here are my early thoughts on the Week 7 slate with Wednesday morning lines. I have three games I’m very close to officially picking and called those side strong leans. There are also a handful of other games I have interest in and shared how I approached those teams so far. As always I will tweet out official picks between now and Sunday.

Strong Leans:

Chargers +6.5 at Falcons

The Falcons are coming off a tough loss against the Seahawks and have the Packers on deck. Great time to fade the Falcons who struggled in this favorite role last season. Chargers with extra time to prepare.

Steelers +7 vs Patriots

Injured-player theory after the Ben Roethlisberger injury. We’re getting a full touchdown with a Steelers team at home who have a healthy Le’Veon Bell and Antonio Brown. Think Steelers bounce back after a clunker last week against the Dolphins.

Dolphins +3 vs Bills

One thing holding me back from loving Miami is they are coming off a big win against the Steelers but that could be a good thing for this team. Bills have won four straight but in an easy stretch of their schedule. Buffalo host New England next week so definitely a lookahead spot for the Bills.

Leans:

Packers -7.5 vs Bears

Best time to buy low on the Packers who are playing their fourth straight home game. Revenge for Green Bay after Chicago won at Lambeau on Thanksgiving night last season. Lookahead line was -10 so definitely some line value despite injuries at running back for Packers.

Redskins +1 at Lions

Don’t love the Redskins overall but think this is a bad matchup for the Lions who gave up 321 passing yard to Case Keenum last week. The injury status of Jordan Reed will likely decide if I officially pick this game.

Raiders +1 at Jaguars

Raiders have won three games on the road in the eastern or central time zone. They are tempting as an underdog here and seem to play better away from home.

Colts +3 at Colts

Not sure if the Titans should be giving a field goal against a team with a good quarterback. The Colts lost a heart-breaking game last week but they have to believe the division is still up for grabs.

Texans +7.5 at Broncos

The Brock Osweiler revenge spot isn’t part of my handicap for this game. I just don’t think Trevor Siemian should be over a touchdown favorite against an average team.

Vikings -2.5 at Eagles

No reason to back off the Vikings who are coming off a bye week and have an intimidating defense against a rookie quarterback.

Buccaneers -2 at 49ers

Buccaneers are also off a bye so this seems like a great spot for them. But have to hesitate to back them as favorites on the road.