I’m a little surprised the line is only New England -3. The Falcons have a historically good offense but the Patriots are experienced and a great team against the spread.
While the Falcons were routing the Packers on Sunday I decided that I will probably like the AFC team in the Super Bowl. Atlanta played as well as they could and because of that I think there’s some line value on the Patriots. If the Patriots played a closer game against the Steelers then this could’ve been under a field goal but Pittsburgh was really unimpressive.
I can’t pick against Tom Brady in this situation who has extra motivation after serving a suspension to start the season. I also can’t pick against Belichick with extra time to prepare.
I know I like the Patriots for the game and would lean under 58. However, these are two high-flying offenses so I don’t feel comfortable taking the under. Maybe Falcons team total under if anything. This also feels like a game where the two teams start slow so first quarter under and more points in the second half than first half are things I’m considering. I will write something with all the props I like next week when everything is released and lines settle in.