NFL Week 2 Picks and Leans

I talked up the Redskins earlier in the week and I will stick with them as an official pick and my best bet in Week 2. I think there has been an overreaction to the Rams performance against the Colts, and a lot of negative sentiment towards the Redskins. My line has Washington as a one-point favorite so we are getting line value too. Unfortunately, the spread has stood pat at +2.5 and I was hoping to get a full field goal with backing the Redskins. If you can buy a half-point to get it there then I would recommend doing that.

The Titans are my other official pick so far and I explained why I like them in this Facebook post.

I’m very tempted to make the Eagles a pick this week and will probably do it if I can get +6 with Philadelphia against the Kansas City Chiefs. I made this game Chiefs -3 so I think there is value but I have a few worries with backing the Eagles. One worry is that Andy Reid is facing his former team so he will have a great game plan especially with a few extra days to prepare. My other concern is the Eagles just beat a division rival in the Redskins and have another NFC East foe in the Giants next week so this scheduling spot isn’t ideal. If I end up picking the Eagles I will tweet out an official pick so stay tuned.

Early in the week I talked myself into liking the Packers as a three-point underdog against the Falcons. However, Green Bay has a couple offensive line injuries that could really impact this game against an aggressive Falcons defense. I also realized the Packers defense looked so good because of the Seahawks bad offensive line. The Falcons offensive line is a much better unit and is one of the reasons their offense was so good last year. Since I have Atlanta under 9.5 wins for the season, I’m likely going to sit this one out and hope Green Bay wins for win total purposes.

I wrote about the Vikings being an intriguing pick based off my numbers but I’ve changed my mind on this game. Everyone is talking about how the Steelers struggled against the Browns, and I think this could be a vintage spot where Pittsburgh bounces back and dominates at home. The Vikings looked awesome, especially on offense, on Monday but they had a prime matchup against the Saints defense at home. The spread dropped as low to -5 at one point and now is juggling between -5.5 and -6. Instead of taking that full game number, I am going to consider a halftime play in case the Steelers start off slow on offense.

The Dolphins seems to be another popular underdog this week but I’m not buying it. Mostly because I don’t think Miami is good. They are in a terrific spot after not playing in Week 1 and getting Jay Cutler more time to get acclimated to his new team. The Chargers lost a close game on Monday night so it’s not an ideal situation for them playing on a short week. However, I am still high on the Chargers and think we are getting a discount on them at -3.5. The line was as high as -5 earlier in the week. I’m not going to make an official pick now but would lean Chargers and will be even more intrigued if the line creeps down to -3.

The Giants fall in a similar category as the Charges as their spread is already down to -3 after opening higher earlier in the week. The look ahead line before Week 1 for their Monday night contest against the Lions was -6 so there’s value in that area. The main concern with the Giants is the health of Odell Beckham. It looks like he will play but I’m not sure how effective he will be. Since this game isn’t until Monday, I will wait and see but lean the Giants here.

If there are any picks I make official, I will tweet them in a thread on The Sharpest Squarest Twitter account. My two official plays are Redskins +2.5 and Titans -1. My leans are on the Eagles +5.5, Packers +3, Steelers -5.5, Chargers -3.5 and Giants -3.

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