NFL Picks: Week 4 Early Thoughts

I’m still working on my power ratings and cheat sheet but there are five games that jump out to me that I wanted write about on Tuesday afternoon.

Bears at Packers -7 (-115)

I’ll start off by saying that I’m a Bears fan and have a strong dislike for the Packers. However, I have no problem picking against my favorite team in any sport if there’s value. In this spot I think there is tremendous line value on Green Bay. My numbers have the Packers six points better than the Bears on a neutral field. Add in home field and I would make this line Packers -9.5. Green Bay was an -11.5-point favorite on the look ahead line before Week 3 so another reason I believe there’s value. The other part of this handicap is the situation and matchup. Thursday night games are always tricky for me but I would give the Packers a significant edge here. Both teams won in overtime last week but Green Bay gets to stay at home. My initial thoughts on the matchups also favor the Packers. The way to beat Green Bay is attacking their secondary and Chicago isn’t equipped to do that. Mike Glennon threw for only 101 yards in Sunday’s win and a Bears wide receiver only caught one pass. There were 12 completions to the running backs and two to the tight ends. I usually don’t pick games this early in the week but I’ll make an official play on Packers -7 (-115).

Rams at Cowboys (-7.5) Continue reading