Picks

Falcons -3 vs Vikings: I have these teams even in my power ratings so I think the spread is right. I side with the Falcons though who really need this game to maintain their position in the playoff race and stay within striking distance of the Saints for the NFC South. The Vikings put a stranglehold on the NFC North with their win on Thanksgiving Day so this isn’t as important of a game for Minnesota. My only concerns are that the Vikings had more rest and time to prepare for this game, and the Falcons host the Saints on Thursday in Week 14. If you agree with the Falcons, I would wait a little bit to see if this goes down to -2.5 or you could just take the moneyline at around -145.

Seahawks +6 vs Eagles: It’s scary to step in front of the Eagles but this line is too inflated. If this game was on a neutral field, I think that the line would be around six. This game is in Seattle and they have one of the best home field advantages despite their team being down. The game is also at night so the crowd should be even louder. Along with the line value, I like the Seahawks as an underdog in a game they need to win.

Leans

Lions +3 vs Ravens: I think the line is right but the Lions have an edge with 10 days to prepare for this game and the Ravens coming off a Monday night game. Baltimore’s offense won’t be able to expose Detroit’s struggling defense and Matthew Stafford is much better than most of the quarterbacks the Ravens have faced.

Packers -2 vs Buccaneers: Don’t really understand why the Buccaneers opened as a favorite in Green Bay. Teams from Florida historically struggle playing in northern climates in December and January. Jameis Winston is coming back but he has struggled this season and the Buccaneers are a bad team. Brett Hundley looks like he has improved and think the Packers performance against the Steelers shows they will still give a maximum effort. Would probably upgrade this to an official pick if the Buccaneers were still favorites.

Other sides that interest me (contest picks) 

49ers +3 vs Bears: The Bears are 0-6 against the spread and 0-6 straight up under John Fox.

Broncos -1.5 vs Dolphins: The Broncos are starting their best quarterback for the first time in weeks.

Jets +3 vs Chiefs: Would’ve loved to have Jets +6, which was the look ahead number.

Saints -4.5 vs Panthers: The Saints home field advantage is back and I think this line isn’t high enough.

Cardinals +7 vs Rams: Rams have bigger games ahead with the Eagles and Seahawks on deck.

Bengals +5 vs Steelers: Bengals are still in the playoff race so I would look at them first half on Monday night.