NFL Picks: Week 14 Power Ratings, Cheat Sheet and Handicapping Preview

Two charts for this week and a preview of the 14 games that currently have a line as of Wednesday afternoon. Check out @SharpestSquares on Twitter for picks I make official.

Team After Week 12 After Week 13
Patriots 14 14.5
Eagles 14 13
Vikings 10.5 11.5
Rams 10.5 11
Saints 10 11
Steelers 11 10
Falcons 10.5 9.5
Chargers 9 9
Jaguars 8 8.5
Panthers 9 8
Seahawks 7.5 8
Redskins 7.5 7
Cowboys 6 7
Chiefs 7 6.5
Ravens 6 6.5
Titans 6 5.5
Raiders 5 5.5
Bengals 5.5 5
Lions 5.5 4.5
Bills 4.5 3.5
Jets 3 3.5
Buccaneers 3 3
Cardinals 3 2.5
Packers 2 2
49ers 1 2
Texans 1.5 1.5
Dolphins 1 1.5
Bears 2 1
Broncos 2 1
Colts 0.5 0
Giants -2 -2
Browns -2 -2
Game Look ahead line Wednesday line My line
Saints at Falcons Falcons -3 Saints -1.5 Falcons -1.5
Lions at Buccaneers No line No line Buccaneers -0.5
Bears at Bengals Bengals -6.5 Bengals -6 Bengals -6
Colts at Bills Bills -7 No line Bills -6
Seahawks at Jaguars Jaguars -3 Jaguars -2.5 Jaguars -2.5
Raiders at Chiefs` Chiefs -6 Chiefs -4 Chiefs -4
Vikings at Panthers Panthers -2.5 Vikings -3 Vikings -1
Packers at Browns Packers -3.5 Packers -3 Packers -2
49ers at Texans Texans -5.5 Texans -3 Texans -1.5
Redskins at Chargers Chargers -5.5 Chargers -6 Chargers -3
Jets at Broncos Broncos -3 Jets -1.5 Pick ’em
Titans at Cardinals Titans -3 Titans -3 Titans -1
Eagles at Rams Eagles -3 Rams -2.5 Pick ’em
Cowboys at Giants Cowboys -3.5 Cowboys -4 Cowboys -7.5
Ravens at Steelers Steelers -7.5 Steelers -5 Steelers -6
Patriots at Dolphins Patriots -11.5 Patriots -11 Patriots -11.5

Analysis

Saints -1.5 at Falcons

We have a 4.5-point line move between the look ahead and current number for a massive NFC South battle between the Saints and Falcons. The Saints crushed the Panthers and the Falcons fell to the Vikings at home in Week 13. Despite the result from the two games I don’t think the drastic line move was warranted. I expected the Saints to play well against an overvalued Panthers team and the Falcons ran into one of the best teams in the NFL. While I think the Saints are also one of the top teams in the NFL, I expect the Falcons to bounce back on the short week at home. I think the wrong team is the favorite here.

Bengals -6 vs Bears

This game is probably the least favorable scheduling spot and situation for the Bengals. It was always going to be a tall task for the Bengals to play well six days after playing their most hated rival in primetime. A Sunday afternoon game against an out of conference opponent would be an expected flat spot. The situation got even worse for the Bengals with how their game played out against the Steelers. Cincinnati squandered a 17-point lead and lost on a last second field goal. The loss pretty much crushed Cincinnati’s playoff chances and it was a very physical game. Unfortunately, it’s hard to confidently fade the Bengals here because of how poorly the Bears have played since their bye week. They have been 0-4 in that stretch and it’s almost a certainty that John Fox won’t be back in Chicago next season. I’m going to pass this game but would take the Bears if I needed to pick a side. Continue reading