NFL Picks: Divisional Round Power Ratings and Cheat Sheet

Here are the three charts for this week:

Team (Home field) After Week 17 After Wild Card Round
Patriots (3.5) 14 14
Steelers (3) 10.5 10.5
Jaguars (2.5) 9 8.5
Titans 4 4.5
Team (Home field) After Week 17 After Wild Card Round
Vikings (3.5) 11.5 11.5
Saints (3.5) 11 11
Falcons 9 10
Eagles (3) 7 7
Game Monday line My line
Falcons at Eagles Falcons -3 Pick ’em
Titans at Patriots Patriots -13 or -13.5 Patriots -13
Jaguars at Steelers Steelers -7 or -7.5 Steelers -5
Saints at Vikings Vikings -3.5 or -4 Vikings -4

 

Underdogs went 4-0 against the spread in 2-2 straight up last week. Based off my numbers it looks like there is line value on the Eagles and Jaguars this week. Will do some deeper handicapping and will tweet out any thoughts I have about the four games.

NFL Picks: Wild Card Power Ratings and Cheat Sheet

Three charts this week. One is a chart with the six AFC teams in the playoffs and I included the home field advantage for the division winners. I did the same thing with the six NFC teams. The third chart is the current line for the four Wild Card games and my line for each game.

Team (Home field) After Week 15 After Week 16 After Week 17
Patriots (3.5) 14 14 14
Steelers (3) 10 10.5 10.5
Jaguars (2.5) 10 9.5 9
Chiefs (3) 9 8.5 9
Titans 4 4 4
Bills 4 3.5 4

As you can see from the AFC chart, the two wild card teams are very far apart from the four division winners. The Chargers and Ravens are both better than the Titans and Bills, and the AFC games would’ve been far more competitive if those teams made the postseason.

Team (Home field) After Week 15 After Week 16 After Week 17
Vikings (3.5) 11.5 11.5 11.5
Saints (3.5) 11 11.5 11
Rams (2.5) 11 11 11
Falcons 9.5 9 9
Panthers 9 8 8
Eagles (3) 9 8 7

The biggest takeaway from the NFC power ratings is that the No. 1 seed is rated last out of the six teams. I originally didn’t downgrade the Carson Wentz injury much because I thought highly of Nick Foles but he hasn’t been impressive since starting. Philadelphia could easily be home underdogs in the division round.

Game Thursday line My line
Titans at Chiefs Chiefs -9 Chiefs -8
Falcons at Rams Rams -7 Rams -4.5
Bills at Jaguars Jaguars -9 Jaguars -7.5
Panthers at Saints Saints -7 Saints -6.5

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