NFL Picks: Early Super Bowl Odds and How to Bet Props

The Super Bowl is set as the Patriots and Eagles won on Championship Sunday. Before the conference championship games were played I had the Patriots seven points better than the Eagles on neutral field. While the Eagles were putting the finishing touches on their rout of the Vikings, point spreads started to emerge for the Super Bowl. I first saw lines of Patriots -6.5 on Twitter but then the -6, -5.5 and -5 started to pop up. Less than 24 hours after the dust settled, it looks like Patriots -5 is the number for now with a total of 48 or 48.5.

The question is if the line move towards the Eagles is justified after Sunday’s results. I think you can argue that it is warranted because of how comfortable Nick Foles looked on Sunday. However, there is still a lot of uncertainty for Foles in my opinion. How will he respond to the two-week layoff after playing the game of his life? How much did playing both playoff games at home factor into his success?

Because this game would’ve been Patriots -7 a week ago, the only way I could look at this game is to take the Patriots. Since I’m not sure I would want to lay five points, the money line comes into play here. Usually you can find value taking a favorite on the money line in the Super Bowl because so many casual bettors take the underdog on the money line for a bigger payout. Right now I’m seeing one online site that has the Patriots as a -210 favorite on the money line and the Eagles are +177. Usually a five-point favorite in the NFL is in the -240 to -250 range, while the underdog is around +200. So if you like the Patriots then taking the discounted money line might be the way to go. If you like the Eagles then grabbing the points is better than betting a low money line.

Tips for betting props

Of course the side and total isn’t the only way to get involved in the Super Bowl. The prop betting options are vast and they pay out the same as picking the spread or over/under. This is usually the way to find the best value.  Continue reading