Monthly Archives: September 2018

09.28.18
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NFL Contest Picks: Week 4

It’s a really difficult week to find games to bet on in the NFL. There’s always a handful of those weeks throughout the season. No harm is scaling back if you bet individual games but still need to find sides for a picking in a contest. Here are my picks:

Tier 1

Bengals +5 vs Falcons – Like the Bengals a lot at +5 but wouldn’t bet it at the current number of -3.5. The Falcons suffered another key injury on defense in an overtime loss last week. 

Broncos +5 vs Chiefs – I’ve gone against the Chiefs all season, including heavy the last two weeks. I think this is the spot where the Broncos slow down Mahomes in Denver on primetime. 

Tier 2

Lions +3 vs Cowboys – Ended up with the Lions because of the injury to Sean Lee. Don’t love the situation for Detroit off a huge win against New England but think their offense can have some success here. 

Tier 3 

Raiders -2.5 vs Browns – Going to look to bet the Raiders first half in this game. Oakland has had the lead at halftime in all three games but are 0-3.  

Giants +3.5 vs Saints – The Saints have some real issues on defense right now that the Giants should be able to capitalize on at home.

49ers +10 vs Chargers – I could totally be wrong here but I can see a strong effort from San Francisco in the game following the season-ending injury to Jimmy Garoppolo. 

Tier 4

Jets +7.5 vs Jaguars

Patriots -6.5 vs Dolphins 

Ravens +3 vs Steelers

Tier 5

Titans +4 vs Eagles

Texans +1 vs Colts

Packers -9.5 vs Bills

Bears -3 vs Buccaneers 

Cardinals +3 vs Seahawks

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09.25.18
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NFL Picks: Week 4 Power Ratings and Cheat Sheet

Here are the two charts for this week:

Team After Week 2 After Week 3
Rams (2.5) 11.5 12
Eagles (3) 9.5 9
Vikings (3.5) 10 8.5
Patriots (3.5) 9.5 8.5
Falcons (3) 9 8
Steelers (2.5) 8 8
Saints (3.5) 7.5 8
Chiefs (3) 7 7.5
Chargers (1.5) 7.5 7
Jaguars (2) 7.5 6.5
Packers (3.5) 7 6.5
Ravens (2.5) 5.5 6
Texans (2.5) 6.5 5.5
Panthers (2.5) 5 5.5
Cowboys (2) 5.5 4
Titans (2) 4 4
Dolphins (2) 4 4
Lions (2.5) 3 4
Bears (2) 3 4
Broncos (3) 3.5 3.5
Colts (2.5) 3.5 3.5
Bengals (2) 3.5 3.5
Buccaneers (2) 3.5 3.5
Redskins (2) 3 3.5
Raiders (2) 3 3
Seahawks (3) 2.5 3
Jets (2) 2 2
Browns (2.5) 2 2
Giants (2) 1.5 2
49ers (2) 5.5 1.5
Cardinals (2.5) -0.5 -1
Bills (2.5) -3.5 -1.5

 

Game Look ahead line Tuesday line My line
Vikings at Rams Rams -5 Rams -6.5 Rams -6
Bengals at Falcons Falcons -5 Falcons -5.5 Falcons -7.5
Buccaneers at Bears Bears -1.5 Bears -3 Bears -2.5
Lions at Cowboys Cowboys -4.5 Cowboys -3 Cowboys -2
Bills at Packers Packers -14.5 Packers -10 Packers -11.5
Eagles at Titans No line Eagles -4 Eagles -3
Texans at Colts Texans -2 Colts -1.5 Colts -0.5
Dolphins at Patriots Patriots -9.5 Patriots -7 Patriots -8
Jets at Jaguars Jaguars -9.5 Jaguars -7.5 Jaguars -6.5
Browns at Raiders Raiders -2.5 Raiders -2.5 Raiders -3
Seahawks at Cardinals Seahawks -3 Seahawks -3 Seahawks -1.5
Saints at Giants Saints -3 Saints -3.5 Saints -4
49ers at Chargers Chargers -4.5 Chargers -10.5 Chargers -7
Ravens at Steelers Steelers -3.5 Steelers -3 Steelers -4.5
Chiefs at Broncos Chiefs -3 Chiefs -5 Chiefs -0.5

Check out my analysis of the numbers on Twitter.

09.20.18
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NFL Contest Picks: Week 3

Tier 1

Ravens -5.5 vs Broncos

49ers +6.5 vs Chiefs

Tier 2

Redskins +2.5 vs Packers

Saints +3 vs Falcons

Chargers +7 vs Rams

Tier 3

Cardinals +6 vs Bears

Lions +7 vs Patriots 

Tier 4

Eagles -6.5 vs Colts

Texans -6.5 vs Giants

Tier 5

Bills +16.5 vs Vikings

Dolphins -3 vs Raiders

Bengals +3 vs Panthers

Titans +9.5 vs Jaguars 

Seahawks -2 vs Cowboys 

Steelers -1 vs Buccaneers 

09.18.18
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NFL Picks: Week 3 Power Ratings and Cheat Sheet

Here are the two charts for this week:

Team After Week 1 After Week 2
Rams 10.5 11.5
Vikings 10 10
Patriots 10.5 9.5
Eagles 9 9.5
Falcons 9 9
Steelers 9 8
Saints 8.5 7.5
Chargers 7.5 7.5
Jaguars 6.5 7.5
Packers 8 7
Chiefs 5 7
Texans 7 6.5
Ravens 6 5.5
49ers 5.5 5.5
Cowboys 5 5.5
Panthers 5.5 5
Titans 3.5 4
Dolphins 3.5 4
Broncos 4 3.5
Colts 3 3.5
Bengals 2.5 3.5
Buccaneers 2.5 3.5
Redskins 3.5 3
Lions 3 3
Raiders 2.5 3
Bears 2.5 3
Seahawks 3.5 2.5
Jets 2.5 2
Browns 1.5 2
Giants 2 1.5
Cardinals 0.5 -0.5
Bills -3 -3.5

 

Game Look ahead line Tuesday line My line
Jets at Browns Browns -1.5 Browns -3 Browns -2.5
Colts at Eagles Eagles -7 Eagles -6 Eagles -9 (with Wentz)
Bengals at Panthers Panthers -4.5 Panthers -3 Panthers -4
Titans at Jaguars No line No line (Mariota injury) Jaguars -5.5 (with Mariota)
Saints at Falcons Falcons -3 Falcons -3 Falcons -4.5
Broncos at Ravens Ravens -5.5 Ravens -5 Ravens -4.5
Giants at Texans Texans -4.5 Texans -6 Texans -7.5
Raiders at Dolphins Dolphins -4 Dolphins -3 Dolphins -3
Packers at Redskins No line Packers -3 Packers -2
Bills at Vikings Vikings -15 Vikings -17 Vikings -17
49ers at Chiefs Chiefs -4 Chiefs -6.5 Chiefs -4.5
Chargers at Rams Rams -5.5 Rams -7 Rams -6.5
Bears at Cardinals Bears -2.5 Bears -6 Bears -1
Cowboys at Seahawks Seahawks -3 Seahawks -1 Pick
Patriots at Lions Patriots -6.5 Patriots -6.5 Patriots -4
Steelers at Buccaneers Steelers -4 Steelers -1 Steelers -2.5
09.14.18
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NFL Contest Picks: Week 2

 

Tier 1

Colts +6 vs Redskins 

Steelers -4 vs Chiefs

Tier 2

Dolphins +2.5 vs Jets

Patriots -1 vs Jaguars 

Tier 3

Falcons -6 vs Panthers 

Packers +7 vs Vikings 

Lions +6 vs 49ers

Cowboys -3 vs Giants 

Tier 4

Buccaneers +3.5 vs Eagles 

Saints -8.5 vs Browns 

Broncos -6 vs Raiders 

Tier 5

Texans pick vs Titans 

Chargers -7 vs Bills 

Cardinals +12.5 vs Rams 

Seahawks +3.5 vs Bears 

 

09.11.18
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NFL Picks: Week 2 Power Ratings and Cheat Sheet

Here are the two charts for this week:

Team August 30 Power Rating After Week 1
Patriots 10.5 10.5
Rams 10 10.5
Vikings 10 10
Steelers 9.5 9
Eagles 9 9
Falcons 9 9
Saints 9.5 8.5
Packers 8.5 8
Chargers 8 7.5
Texans 7 7
Jaguars 6.5 6.5
Ravens 5.5 6
49ers 5.5 5.5
Panthers 5.5 5.5
Cowboys 6 5
Chiefs 4.5 5
Broncos 3.5 4
Seahawks 4 3.5
Titans 3.5 3.5
Dolphins 3.5 3.5
Redskins 2 3.5
Colts 4 3
Lions 4 3
Raiders 3 2.5
Bears 2 2.5
Bengals 1.5 2.5
Buccaneers 1 2.5
Jets 0.5 2.5
Giants 2 2
Browns 1.5 1.5
Cardinals 1 0.5
Bills 0 -3
Game Look ahead line Tuesday line My line
Ravens at Bengals Pick Ravens -1 Ravens -1.5
Panthers at Falcons Falcons -4 Falcons -5.5 Falcons -6.5
Chargers at Bills Chargers -1 Chargers -7 Chargers -8
Vikings at Packers Packers -2.5 No line (Rodgers injury) Packers -1.5 (with Rodgers)
Texans at Titans Pick No line (Mariota injury) Texans -1.5 (with Mariota)
Browns at Saints Saints -10 Saints -8.5 Saints -10.5
Dolphins at Jets Jets -1 Jets -3 Jets -1
Chiefs at Steelers Steelers -7 Steelers -5 Steelers -6.5
Eagels at Buccaneers Eagles -3 Eagles -3 Eagles -4.5
Colts at Redskins Redskins -3 Redskins -5.5 Redskins -2.5
Cardinals at Rams Rams -10.5 Rams -12.5 Rams -12.5
Lions at 49ers 49ers -3.5 49ers -5.5 49ers -4.5
Raiders at Broncos Broncos -1 Broncos -5.5 Broncos -4.5
Patriots at Jaguars Patriots -2.5 Patriots -2 Patriots -2
Giants at Cowboys Cowboys -6 Cowboys -3 Cowboys -5
Seahawks at Bears Pick Bears -3 Bears -1

 

09.07.18
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NFL Contest Picks: Week 1

This season I’ve decided to share my NFL picks if I was forced to pick every game against the spread. With the popularity of NFL betting increasing, there will be more contests and pools where you pick either a select number of games or all the games.

I will group my picks into five tiers based on my confidence in each side. I’m in several contests where I have to pick five, six or seven games each week. So this exercise helps me narrow down which games I should select.

I will use the Westgate Las Vegas Super Contest lines that are released on Wednesday and are fixed at that number. I rarely get involved in the Thursday night game in my contests so I’m going to wait until Friday to release the picks. But if I have a strong opinion on the Thursday game, I’ll write about it early in the week or tweet out my thoughts.

This article will be short for Week 1 because I’ve already written about teams I like early, teams I’m looking to fade and posted my early power ratings. 

Tier 1

Dolphins +1.5 vs Titans 

Giants +3 vs Jaguars – Giants +3 is good enough to bet but would’ve preferred +3.5 when that was available before preseason games began. 

Tier 2

Vikings -6.5 vs 49ers

Cowboys +3 vs Panthers – Still strongly considering a bet on the Cowboys if I can get the full field goal.

Tier 3

Chargers -3.5 vs Chiefs

Broncos -3 vs Seahawks 

Bears +7.5 vs Packers 

Tier 4

Browns +3.5 vs Steelers

Ravens -7.5 vs Bills 

Buccaneers +9.5 vs Saints

Texans +6.5 vs Patriots 

Rams -4 vs Raiders

Tier 5

Bengals +3 vs Colts – This goes against what I’ve written about this summer because I like the Colts but enough Week 1 preview podcasts this week have talked me into picking the Bengals with low confidence.

Cardinals -1 vs Redskins

Jets +6.5 vs Lions