NFL Picks: Early Super Bowl Odds and How to Bet Props

The Super Bowl is set as the Patriots and Eagles won on Championship Sunday. Before the conference championship games were played I had the Patriots seven points better than the Eagles on neutral field. While the Eagles were putting the finishing touches on their rout of the Vikings, point spreads started to emerge for the Super Bowl. I first saw lines of Patriots -6.5 on Twitter but then the -6, -5.5 and -5 started to pop up. Less than 24 hours after the dust settled, it looks like Patriots -5 is the number for now with a total of 48 or 48.5.

The question is if the line move towards the Eagles is justified after Sunday’s results. I think you can argue that it is warranted because of how comfortable Nick Foles looked on Sunday. However, there is still a lot of uncertainty for Foles in my opinion. How will he respond to the two-week layoff after playing the game of his life? How much did playing both playoff games at home factor into his success?

Because this game would’ve been Patriots -7 a week ago, the only way I could look at this game is to take the Patriots. Since I’m not sure I would want to lay five points, the money line comes into play here. Usually you can find value taking a favorite on the money line in the Super Bowl because so many casual bettors take the underdog on the money line for a bigger payout. Right now I’m seeing one online site that has the Patriots as a -210 favorite on the money line and the Eagles are +177. Usually a five-point favorite in the NFL is in the -240 to -250 range, while the underdog is around +200. So if you like the Patriots then taking the discounted money line might be the way to go. If you like the Eagles then grabbing the points is better than betting a low money line.

Tips for betting props

Of course the side and total isn’t the only way to get involved in the Super Bowl. The prop betting options are vast and they pay out the same as picking the spread or over/under. This is usually the way to find the best value.  Continue reading

NFL Picks: Conference Championship Power Ratings and Cheat Sheet

 

Team (Home field) After Week 17 After Wild Card Round After Divisional Round
Patriots (3.5) 14 14 14
Jaguars (2.5) 9 8.5 9.5
Team (Home field) After Week 17 After Wild Card Round After Divisional Round
Vikings (3.5) 11.5 11.5 11.5
Eagles (3) 7 7 7
Game Wednesday line My line
Jaguars at Patriots Patriots -8.5 Patriots -8
Vikings at Eagles Vikings -3 Vikings -1.5

NFL Picks: Divisional Round Power Ratings and Cheat Sheet

Here are the three charts for this week:

Team (Home field) After Week 17 After Wild Card Round
Patriots (3.5) 14 14
Steelers (3) 10.5 10.5
Jaguars (2.5) 9 8.5
Titans 4 4.5
Team (Home field) After Week 17 After Wild Card Round
Vikings (3.5) 11.5 11.5
Saints (3.5) 11 11
Falcons 9 10
Eagles (3) 7 7
Game Monday line My line
Falcons at Eagles Falcons -3 Pick ’em
Titans at Patriots Patriots -13 or -13.5 Patriots -13
Jaguars at Steelers Steelers -7 or -7.5 Steelers -5
Saints at Vikings Vikings -3.5 or -4 Vikings -4

 

Underdogs went 4-0 against the spread in 2-2 straight up last week. Based off my numbers it looks like there is line value on the Eagles and Jaguars this week. Will do some deeper handicapping and will tweet out any thoughts I have about the four games.

NFL Picks: Wild Card Power Ratings and Cheat Sheet

Three charts this week. One is a chart with the six AFC teams in the playoffs and I included the home field advantage for the division winners. I did the same thing with the six NFC teams. The third chart is the current line for the four Wild Card games and my line for each game.

Team (Home field) After Week 15 After Week 16 After Week 17
Patriots (3.5) 14 14 14
Steelers (3) 10 10.5 10.5
Jaguars (2.5) 10 9.5 9
Chiefs (3) 9 8.5 9
Titans 4 4 4
Bills 4 3.5 4

As you can see from the AFC chart, the two wild card teams are very far apart from the four division winners. The Chargers and Ravens are both better than the Titans and Bills, and the AFC games would’ve been far more competitive if those teams made the postseason.

Team (Home field) After Week 15 After Week 16 After Week 17
Vikings (3.5) 11.5 11.5 11.5
Saints (3.5) 11 11.5 11
Rams (2.5) 11 11 11
Falcons 9.5 9 9
Panthers 9 8 8
Eagles (3) 9 8 7

The biggest takeaway from the NFC power ratings is that the No. 1 seed is rated last out of the six teams. I originally didn’t downgrade the Carson Wentz injury much because I thought highly of Nick Foles but he hasn’t been impressive since starting. Philadelphia could easily be home underdogs in the division round.

Game Thursday line My line
Titans at Chiefs Chiefs -9 Chiefs -8
Falcons at Rams Rams -7 Rams -4.5
Bills at Jaguars Jaguars -9 Jaguars -7.5
Panthers at Saints Saints -7 Saints -6.5

Continue reading

NFL Picks: Week 16 Power Ratings and Cheat Sheet

Here are the two charts with lines from Tuesday morning. This will be the last edition of power ratings and cheat sheet for the regular season. There are no look ahead lines for Week 17 and the point spreads could be way off based on starters resting for the playoffs.

One note is the Packers have been eliminated from playoff contention so there’s a chance Aaron Rodgers doesn’t play when the Packers host the Vikings on Saturday night. With Rodgers my rating makes Green Bay and Minnesota a pick ’em but if Hundley started I would make the Vikings as a seven-point favorite.

This looks to be another tough week with picking game so I will write something later in the week on here or Twitter about the games that interest me the most.

Team After Week 14 After Week 15
Patriots 14 14
Vikings 11 11.5
Saints 11 11
Rams 10 11
Steelers 10 10
Jaguars 10 10
Falcons 10 9.5
Eagles 10 9
Chargers 10 9
Panthers 8.5 9
Cowboys 7.5 9
Packers 9 8
Chiefs 7 8
Ravens 7 7.5
Seahawks 8 7
Lions 5 5.5
Titans 4.5 4
Raiders 4.5 4
Redskins 4 4
Bills 3.5 4
49ers 3.5 4
Buccaneers 3 3
Cardinals 3 3
Broncos 2 2.5
Dolphins 2 2
Bears 2 1.5
Bengals 3 1
Texans 1 0
Colts 0 -1
Jets -2 -2
Giants -3 -2
Browns -2 -3
Game Look ahead line Tuesday line
Colts at Ravens Ravens -10 Ravens -13.5
Vikings at Packers No line No line
Lions at Bengals Pick ’em Lions -5
Chargers at Jets Chargers -10.5 Chargers -6.5
Rams at Titans Rams -3 Rams -6.5
Browns at Bears Bears -7 Bears -6.5
Buccnaeers at Panthers Panthers -9 Panthers -10
Falcons at Saints Saints -4.5 Saints -5.5
Broncos at Redskins Redskins -5 Redskins -3.5
Dolphins at Chiefs Chiefs -7.5 Chiefs -10
Bills at Patriots No line Patriots -11.5
Jaguars at 49ers Jaguars -5.5 Jagauars -4
Giants at Cardinals Cardinals -7 Cardinals -4
Sehawks at Cowboys Cowboys -3 Cowboys -4.5
Steelers at Texans Steelers -8 Steelers -9.5
Raiders at Eagles Eagles -7.5 Eagles -9

NFL Picks: Week 15 Power Ratings and Cheat Sheet

I mentioned on Monday that nothing jumped out at me this week. I was able to find one game I like and tweeted out Seahawks -2.5. Might add another game so I will tweet it out before Sunday if I do.

Here are the two charts for this week:

Team After Week 13 After Week 14
Patriots 14.5 14
Vikings 11.5 11
Saints 11 11
Eagles 13 10
Rams 11 10
Steelers 10 10
Falcons 9.5 10
Chargers 9 10
Jaguars 8.5 9
Packers 2 9
Panthers 8 8.5
Seahawks 8 8
Cowboys 7 7.5
Chiefs 6.5 7
Ravens 6.5 7
Lions 4.5 5
Titans 5.5 4.5
Raiders 5.5 4.5
Redskins 7 4
Bills 3.5 3.5
Bengals 5 3
Buccaneers 3 3
Cardinals 2 3
49ers 2 3.5
Dolphins 1 2
Bears 1 2
Broncos 1 2
Texans 1.5 1
Colts 0 0
Jets 3.5 -2
Browns -2 -2
Giants -2 -3
Game Look ahead line Thursday line My line
Broncos at Colts Colts -1 Broncos -3 Pick ’em
Bears at Lions No line Lions -5.5 Lions -5.5
Chargers at Chiefs Chiefs -2 Chargers -1 Pick ’em
Eagles at Giants Eagles -9 Eagles -7.5 Eagles -11.5
Packers at Panthers No line Panthers -3 Panthers -2
Bengals at Vikings Vikings -9 Vikings -10.5 Vikings -11
Dolphins at Bills No line Bills -4 Bills -4
Texans at Jaguars Jaguars -8.5 Jaguars -11.5 Jaguars -10.5
Jets at Saints Saints -10.5 Saints -16 Saints -16
Cardinals at Redskins Redskins -6 Redskins -4 Redskins -3
Ravens at Browns Ravens -6.5 Ravens -7 Ravens -7
Rams at Seahawks Seahawks -2.5 Seahawks -2.5 Seahawks -1.5
Patriots at Steelers Patriots -2.5 Patriots -3 Patriots -1.5
Titans at 49ers Titans -4 49ers -1.5 49ers -0.5
Cowboys at Raiders Raiders -2 Cowboys -3 Cowboys -0.5
Falcons at Buccaneers Falcons -3.5 Falcons -6 Falcons -5

NFL Picks: Week 14 Review, QB Injuries and Early Look at Week 15

Week 14 set up to be a NFL slate with a lot of value and I was able to go 3-0 on the week with wins on the Falcons, Chiefs and Eagles. Improved to 21-12-1 on the season with the sweep.

The main takeaway from the week was the importance of look ahead lines. The Falcons, Panthers, Broncos and Eagles were all favorites before the Week 13 results. All four were then instilled as underdogs at some point before Week 14. All four teams ended up covering the closing number and winning straight up. I have been preaching all season to take advantage of these look ahead numbers to help find line value. Here’s an early look at the numbers for Week 15: Continue reading