Week 14 set up to be a NFL slate with a lot of value and I was able to go 3-0 on the week with wins on the Falcons, Chiefs and Eagles. Improved to 21-12-1 on the season with the sweep.
The main takeaway from the week was the importance of look ahead lines. The Falcons, Panthers, Broncos and Eagles were all favorites before the Week 13 results. All four were then instilled as underdogs at some point before Week 14. All four teams ended up covering the closing number and winning straight up. I have been preaching all season to take advantage of these look ahead numbers to help find line value. Here’s an early look at the numbers for Week 15: Continue reading →
Two charts for this week and a preview of the 14 games that currently have a line as of Wednesday afternoon. Check out @SharpestSquares on Twitter for picks I make official.
After Week 12
After Week 13
Look ahead line
Saints at Falcons
Lions at Buccaneers
Bears at Bengals
Colts at Bills
Seahawks at Jaguars
Raiders at Chiefs`
Vikings at Panthers
Packers at Browns
49ers at Texans
Redskins at Chargers
Jets at Broncos
Titans at Cardinals
Eagles at Rams
Cowboys at Giants
Ravens at Steelers
Patriots at Dolphins
Saints -1.5 at Falcons
We have a 4.5-point line move between the look ahead and current number for a massive NFC South battle between the Saints and Falcons. The Saints crushed the Panthers and the Falcons fell to the Vikings at home in Week 13. Despite the result from the two games I don’t think the drastic line move was warranted. I expected the Saints to play well against an overvalued Panthers team and the Falcons ran into one of the best teams in the NFL. While I think the Saints are also one of the top teams in the NFL, I expect the Falcons to bounce back on the short week at home. I think the wrong team is the favorite here.
Bengals -6 vs Bears
This game is probably the least favorable scheduling spot and situation for the Bengals. It was always going to be a tall task for the Bengals to play well six days after playing their most hated rival in primetime. A Sunday afternoon game against an out of conference opponent would be an expected flat spot. The situation got even worse for the Bengals with how their game played out against the Steelers. Cincinnati squandered a 17-point lead and lost on a last second field goal. The loss pretty much crushed Cincinnati’s playoff chances and it was a very physical game. Unfortunately, it’s hard to confidently fade the Bengals here because of how poorly the Bears have played since their bye week. They have been 0-4 in that stretch and it’s almost a certainty that John Fox won’t be back in Chicago next season. I’m going to pass this game but would take the Bears if I needed to pick a side. Continue reading →
Falcons -3 vs Vikings: I have these teams even in my power ratings so I think the spread is right. I side with the Falcons though who really need this game to maintain their position in the playoff race and stay within striking distance of the Saints for the NFC South. The Vikings put a stranglehold on the NFC North with their win on Thanksgiving Day so this isn’t as important of a game for Minnesota. My only concerns are that the Vikings had more rest and time to prepare for this game, and the Falcons host the Saints on Thursday in Week 14. If you agree with the Falcons, I would wait a little bit to see if this goes down to -2.5 or you could just take the moneyline at around -145.
Seahawks +6 vs Eagles: It’s scary to step in front of the Eagles but this line is too inflated. If this game was on a neutral field, I think that the line would be around six. This game is in Seattle and they have one of the best home field advantages despite their team being down. The game is also at night so the crowd should be even louder. Along with the line value, I like the Seahawks as an underdog in a game they need to win.
Lions +3 vs Ravens: I think the line is right but the Lions have an edge with 10 days to prepare for this game and the Ravens coming off a Monday night game. Baltimore’s offense won’t be able to expose Detroit’s struggling defense and Matthew Stafford is much better than most of the quarterbacks the Ravens have faced. Continue reading →
Want to get the charts out early this week with three games on Thanksgiving.
Earlier in the week I separated my power ratings by AFC only and NFC only, and wrote about the playoff races in each conference.
I will tweet out any picks that I like this week. Currently there are nine favorites of a touchdown or more, including three that are 13.5 or more. Because of that it will probably be a light week with the amount of picks I make.
At first glance, the sides that stuck out and interested me were Bills (if Taylor starts), Buccaneers, Colts and Saints.
Nate and Andy look at the best situational angles for Week 12 in college football, including why you should fade Notre Dame, TCU and Miami. Nate explains his three NFL picks for Week 11 (17:15-21:45) and the guys break down the injuries in the two primetime games (29:40-42:30).
Two charts for this week below. Biggest adjustment was the Cowboys due to the suspension of Ezekiel Elliott and Sean Lee. If left tackle Tyron Smith is also out this week, then I would stay away from the Cowboys until he returns.