Four Teams I’m Looking to Bet On Early in the NFL Season

After picking six teams I’m looking to bet against, I’ll be more positive in this article and recommend teams I’m looking to bet on. I’ll look to back these teams in individual games rather than win totals in most cases. There’s a risk betting over a team’s win total because an injury can impact everything about a team’s success. Also these win totals have been out for months so there isn’t much value left in August. Instead of waiting four months to learn the result of your bet, I prefer betting on the teams I like early in the season.

I have four teams I like but want to mention two before diving in. The Rams and Chargers are two teams I like a lot but so do a lot of people. The Rams win total is 10 and they are in a loaded NFC. It’s asking a lot of them to win 11 games. Instead of going over their win total, I tweeted that I bet them to win the NFC West at -135 because I’m down on the 49ers and Seahawks, who are the other two teams that could realistically win the division.

The Chargers win total is at 9.5 but they sit at +155 to win the AFC West. I wrote about betting against the Chiefs and Raiders so I’m considering a division bet on the Chargers. I’m interested in taking them -3 in Week 1 against the Chiefs too. I’ll tweet out whatever I end up doing with the Chargers.

Falcons- It would’ve been a very predictable outcome if the 2017 Falcons didn’t meet expectations after one of the worst Super Bowl losses in NFL history. Their play was up and down but they ended up going over a win total of 9.5 with a victory in Week 17. They were able to make the playoffs, upset the Rams and had a great chance of beating the eventual Super Bowl champion Eagles in Philadelphia. I think the Falcons’ offense will see positive regression in offensive coordinator Steve Sarkisian’s second season in charge. I expect a strong year from the defense as Dan Quinn continues to develop players that fit his system. A win total at 9 seems a touch low and it’s tempting to take the Falcons in a Week 1 revenge game against the Eagles on the first Thursday night of the season.

Verdict: There are several ways to bet on the Falcons this season so I’m going to look to find spots early in the season to back them.  Continue reading

Six Teams I’m Looking to Bet Against Early in the NFL Season

After months of research and reading, I’m ready to reveal some of my NFL thoughts for the 2018 season. I’ll start with teams I’m looking to bet against early in the season. That can include under the season win total, bets against teams in individual regular season games or both. I also looked closely at the yes/no props to make the playoffs that are posted for each team, which is something new for me this season.

Before starting, I have a few things to say about the Buffalo Bills. I bet Bills under 6.5 wins in early July. The most popular win total bet I saw people talk about earlier this summer was Bills under 7 or 6.5 wins. Then LeSean McCoy was involved in domestic violence allegations and the win total went down to 6. I still think they go under 6 but understand if people want to stay away now that some of the value has been extracted. Everything lines up for the Bills to be an under team this season. They made the playoffs for the first time in 18 years. They traded quarterback Tyrod Taylor, and signed A.J. McCarron and drafted Josh Allen. I’m not sold on McCarron as a NFL starter and Allen had accuracy concerns in college. The offensive weapons in Buffalo are limited and the defense benefitted from turnover luck last season. The Bills have road games against the Ravens, Vikings and Packers in September with a Week 2 home opener against the Chargers in between. If the Bills have a poor record to start the season, I’m guessing they’ll start Allen and become an even worse team. I can see the Bills finishing with the worst record in the NFL but they’re already being priced as one of the bottom teams in the league.

Jaguars- When looking to identify teams that I want to bet against, I tend to look at teams who greatly exceeded expectations the previous year. The Jacksonville Jaguars had a win total of 6.5 after winning three games in 2016. They won 10 games last season and now their win total has increased by 2.5 games to 9. Under 9 will be a bet for me. Jacksonville’s defense is an amazing unit but I don’t believe in Blake Bortles and Leonard Fournette’s numbers were inflated by breaking off a few long runs. The Jaguars benefitted from Deshaun Watson and Andrew Luck not starting against them in both games, and Texans and Colts will be a lot better than they were last season. I’m undecided if I want to bet against the Jaguars in Week 1, where they are a 3.5-point favorite at the New York Giants, but I’ll be looking to fade them in other spots early in the season.

Verdict: Jaguars under 9 is a strong bet and also betting against them in several early season games. Continue reading

NFL Picks: Early Super Bowl Odds and How to Bet Props

The Super Bowl is set as the Patriots and Eagles won on Championship Sunday. Before the conference championship games were played I had the Patriots seven points better than the Eagles on neutral field. While the Eagles were putting the finishing touches on their rout of the Vikings, point spreads started to emerge for the Super Bowl. I first saw lines of Patriots -6.5 on Twitter but then the -6, -5.5 and -5 started to pop up. Less than 24 hours after the dust settled, it looks like Patriots -5 is the number for now with a total of 48 or 48.5.

The question is if the line move towards the Eagles is justified after Sunday’s results. I think you can argue that it is warranted because of how comfortable Nick Foles looked on Sunday. However, there is still a lot of uncertainty for Foles in my opinion. How will he respond to the two-week layoff after playing the game of his life? How much did playing both playoff games at home factor into his success?

Because this game would’ve been Patriots -7 a week ago, the only way I could look at this game is to take the Patriots. Since I’m not sure I would want to lay five points, the money line comes into play here. Usually you can find value taking a favorite on the money line in the Super Bowl because so many casual bettors take the underdog on the money line for a bigger payout. Right now I’m seeing one online site that has the Patriots as a -210 favorite on the money line and the Eagles are +177. Usually a five-point favorite in the NFL is in the -240 to -250 range, while the underdog is around +200. So if you like the Patriots then taking the discounted money line might be the way to go. If you like the Eagles then grabbing the points is better than betting a low money line.

Tips for betting props

Of course the side and total isn’t the only way to get involved in the Super Bowl. The prop betting options are vast and they pay out the same as picking the spread or over/under. This is usually the way to find the best value.  Continue reading

NFL Picks: Conference Championship Power Ratings and Cheat Sheet

 

Team (Home field) After Week 17 After Wild Card Round After Divisional Round
Patriots (3.5) 14 14 14
Jaguars (2.5) 9 8.5 9.5
Team (Home field) After Week 17 After Wild Card Round After Divisional Round
Vikings (3.5) 11.5 11.5 11.5
Eagles (3) 7 7 7
Game Wednesday line My line
Jaguars at Patriots Patriots -8.5 Patriots -8
Vikings at Eagles Vikings -3 Vikings -1.5

NFL Picks: Divisional Round Power Ratings and Cheat Sheet

Here are the three charts for this week:

Team (Home field) After Week 17 After Wild Card Round
Patriots (3.5) 14 14
Steelers (3) 10.5 10.5
Jaguars (2.5) 9 8.5
Titans 4 4.5
Team (Home field) After Week 17 After Wild Card Round
Vikings (3.5) 11.5 11.5
Saints (3.5) 11 11
Falcons 9 10
Eagles (3) 7 7
Game Monday line My line
Falcons at Eagles Falcons -3 Pick ’em
Titans at Patriots Patriots -13 or -13.5 Patriots -13
Jaguars at Steelers Steelers -7 or -7.5 Steelers -5
Saints at Vikings Vikings -3.5 or -4 Vikings -4

 

Underdogs went 4-0 against the spread in 2-2 straight up last week. Based off my numbers it looks like there is line value on the Eagles and Jaguars this week. Will do some deeper handicapping and will tweet out any thoughts I have about the four games.

NFL Picks: Wild Card Power Ratings and Cheat Sheet

Three charts this week. One is a chart with the six AFC teams in the playoffs and I included the home field advantage for the division winners. I did the same thing with the six NFC teams. The third chart is the current line for the four Wild Card games and my line for each game.

Team (Home field) After Week 15 After Week 16 After Week 17
Patriots (3.5) 14 14 14
Steelers (3) 10 10.5 10.5
Jaguars (2.5) 10 9.5 9
Chiefs (3) 9 8.5 9
Titans 4 4 4
Bills 4 3.5 4

As you can see from the AFC chart, the two wild card teams are very far apart from the four division winners. The Chargers and Ravens are both better than the Titans and Bills, and the AFC games would’ve been far more competitive if those teams made the postseason.

Team (Home field) After Week 15 After Week 16 After Week 17
Vikings (3.5) 11.5 11.5 11.5
Saints (3.5) 11 11.5 11
Rams (2.5) 11 11 11
Falcons 9.5 9 9
Panthers 9 8 8
Eagles (3) 9 8 7

The biggest takeaway from the NFC power ratings is that the No. 1 seed is rated last out of the six teams. I originally didn’t downgrade the Carson Wentz injury much because I thought highly of Nick Foles but he hasn’t been impressive since starting. Philadelphia could easily be home underdogs in the division round.

Game Thursday line My line
Titans at Chiefs Chiefs -9 Chiefs -8
Falcons at Rams Rams -7 Rams -4.5
Bills at Jaguars Jaguars -9 Jaguars -7.5
Panthers at Saints Saints -7 Saints -6.5

Continue reading

NFL Picks: Week 16 Power Ratings and Cheat Sheet

Here are the two charts with lines from Tuesday morning. This will be the last edition of power ratings and cheat sheet for the regular season. There are no look ahead lines for Week 17 and the point spreads could be way off based on starters resting for the playoffs.

One note is the Packers have been eliminated from playoff contention so there’s a chance Aaron Rodgers doesn’t play when the Packers host the Vikings on Saturday night. With Rodgers my rating makes Green Bay and Minnesota a pick ’em but if Hundley started I would make the Vikings as a seven-point favorite.

This looks to be another tough week with picking game so I will write something later in the week on here or Twitter about the games that interest me the most.

Team After Week 14 After Week 15
Patriots 14 14
Vikings 11 11.5
Saints 11 11
Rams 10 11
Steelers 10 10
Jaguars 10 10
Falcons 10 9.5
Eagles 10 9
Chargers 10 9
Panthers 8.5 9
Cowboys 7.5 9
Packers 9 8
Chiefs 7 8
Ravens 7 7.5
Seahawks 8 7
Lions 5 5.5
Titans 4.5 4
Raiders 4.5 4
Redskins 4 4
Bills 3.5 4
49ers 3.5 4
Buccaneers 3 3
Cardinals 3 3
Broncos 2 2.5
Dolphins 2 2
Bears 2 1.5
Bengals 3 1
Texans 1 0
Colts 0 -1
Jets -2 -2
Giants -3 -2
Browns -2 -3
Game Look ahead line Tuesday line
Colts at Ravens Ravens -10 Ravens -13.5
Vikings at Packers No line No line
Lions at Bengals Pick ’em Lions -5
Chargers at Jets Chargers -10.5 Chargers -6.5
Rams at Titans Rams -3 Rams -6.5
Browns at Bears Bears -7 Bears -6.5
Buccnaeers at Panthers Panthers -9 Panthers -10
Falcons at Saints Saints -4.5 Saints -5.5
Broncos at Redskins Redskins -5 Redskins -3.5
Dolphins at Chiefs Chiefs -7.5 Chiefs -10
Bills at Patriots No line Patriots -11.5
Jaguars at 49ers Jaguars -5.5 Jagauars -4
Giants at Cardinals Cardinals -7 Cardinals -4
Sehawks at Cowboys Cowboys -3 Cowboys -4.5
Steelers at Texans Steelers -8 Steelers -9.5
Raiders at Eagles Eagles -7.5 Eagles -9