This season I’ve decided to share my NFL picks if I was forced to pick every game against the spread. With the popularity of NFL betting increasing, there will be more contests and pools where you pick either a select number of games or all the games.
I will group my picks into five tiers based on my confidence in each side. I’m in several contests where I have to pick five, six or seven games each week. So this exercise helps me narrow down which games I should select.
I will use the Westgate Las Vegas Super Contest lines that are released on Wednesday and are fixed at that number. I rarely get involved in the Thursday night game in my contests so I’m going to wait until Friday to release the picks. But if I have a strong opinion on the Thursday game, I’ll write about it early in the week or tweet out my thoughts.
Giants +3 vs Jaguars – Giants +3 is good enough to bet but would’ve preferred +3.5 when that was available before preseason games began.
Vikings -6.5 vs 49ers
Cowboys +3 vs Panthers – Still strongly considering a bet on the Cowboys if I can get the full field goal.
Chargers -3.5 vs Chiefs
Broncos -3 vs Seahawks
Bears +7.5 vs Packers
Browns +3.5 vs Steelers
Ravens -7.5 vs Bills
Buccaneers +9.5 vs Saints
Texans +6.5 vs Patriots
Rams -4 vs Raiders
Bengals +3 vs Colts – This goes against what I’ve written about this summer because I like the Colts but enough Week 1 preview podcasts this week have talked me into picking the Bengals with low confidence.
I highlighted how I handicap NFL games each week before last season began and I’m going to keep the same approach this season. I’ll provide my power ratings and weekly cheat sheet sometime on Tuesday throughout the season. The purpose the the cheat sheet is give people a starting point when identifying NFL games they might be interested in.
The season starts in seven days but I have my early numbers ready and home field advantage ratings set. Week 4 of the preseason usually is a final tryout for players trying to make the roster so not much will change before the season starts.
One of my starting points with handicapping the NFL is to make my own point spreads for each game. I give each team a power rating and am able to come up with a number after factoring in home field advantage.
The old default for home field was giving the home team an extra three points. A three-point favorite at home meant that the two teams were equal on a neutral field. I don’t think three points can be blindly added for every home team anymore. I would say the league average is closer to 2.5 with some teams getting more than three and some a full point less.
There are a few things to factor when coming up with a home field advantage number. I usually start with the intensity and passion that fans bring from the parking lot into the stadium. A noisy and loud stadium gives a team a true advantage especially when the opposing team has the ball on offense.
You also want to look at location of the team. A team will have a stronger home field advantage if they are the main attraction in town on a Sunday as opposed to a place where the weather is nice and/or the city is made up of transplants.
The final factor is judging how well positioned the team is to compete. A crowd is more likely to get behind a team and create an advantage when a team is at least average and possibly contending for a playoff spot. Towards the end the the season, I’m willing to downgrade a team if they are out of contention and the players won’t be feeding off their fans.
Listed below are the home field advantage numbers I’m assigning for each team with a comment about some notable ones. I’ll mention in my weekly cheat sheet if I decide to move any of these numbers.
3.5 points for home field advantage: Patriots, Vikings, Saints, Packers
The Patriots and Packers home field advantage is based on their passionate fans and success of the team. When Rodgers was hurt last season, I downgraded the Packers to 2.5 or 3 points. The Vikings home field has moved up in the last few years after they opened their new stadium, which is very loud. The Saints got an upgrade last season when they won the division. New Orleans is one of the toughest places to play when they are rolling. Continue reading →