Here are the bowl picks I have made so far. I will tweet any additional picks I make throughout the bowl season.
Temple (-1.5) over Toledo
Washington State (-2.5) over Miami
North Carolina (+1.5) over Baylor
Houston (+7) over Florida State
Notre Dame (+6.5) Ohio State
Stanford (-6.5) over Iowa
Stanford (-4.5) over USC: A lot has changed since these two teams met on September 19 in Week 3. Stanford entered the game 1-1 and beat USC straight up as a 10-point underdog. Since then Stanford flirted with a spot in the College Football Playoff but a loss to Oregon gives the Cardinal a slim chance to get a top four spot. USC has fired a coach and just permanently hired one since the Week 3 contest against Stanford. After beating UCLA, the Trojans took the interim label off Clay Helton’s title and he signed a five-year deal to be the school’s head coach. With Stanford having more to play for, I think they cover this number. Helton and USC will have one eye looking towards recruiting and might not be well prepared for this game.
Saints (+7) over Panthers: I made the point spread for this game Panthers -4. So I think there is some value in this line. New Orleans is a much better team at home and their defense has to be slightly better since Rob Ryan got fired. The Saints played the Panthers tough when the two teams met earlier this season and I think this will be another close one.
Rams (+6) over Cardinals: This is the classic take the Jeff Fisher team as an underdog in a division game. The Cardinals might be looking ahead to a Thursday night game at home against the Vikings. I think the Rams will be able to have success on the ground with Todd Gurley and cover this spread at home.
Giants (+2.5) over Jets: The Giants are technically the home team but you can throw out home field advantage here since the Jets play in the same stadium. I still don’t think the Jets are a better team than the Giants and not sure why they are favorites especially without Darrelle Revis. I think the Giants win straight up and put themselves in a strong position to win the NFC East.
Chiefs (-3) over Raiders: I usually don’t like taking away favorites but I think the red-hot Chiefs aren’t getting the respect they deserve in this line. Oakland has won five game but I don’t spot an impressive win on their schedule. The Chiefs are on a great winning and covering streak, and I’m going to take a shot at them doing it again.
Arkansas (-4) over Mississippi State: Arkansas is coming back home off huge road wins against Ole Miss and LSU. The Razorbacks played their best football at the end of the season last year, and I think they are doing the same now. I think they can put up points here and win by at least a touchdown.
Penn State (+3.5) over Michigan: Michigan is coming off a double overtime win over Indiana and have a huge game against Ohio State next weekend. Penn State had a bye week so they should be well prepared for this game. The Nittany Lions will win straight up with the Wolverines looking ahead to their game with the Buckeyes.
California (+10.5) over Stanford: Stanford’s College Football Playoff dreams were crushed last week when they lost to Oregon. Not much to play for her from the Cardinal perspective. California has greatly improved this season and I think they will bring a great effort against one of their biggest rivals.
Memphis (+7) over Houston: The line for this game would be much tighter if Memphis didn’t lose their first game of the season to Navy last week. I think the Tigers can keep it close behind quarterback Paxton Lynch. Houston will win but by a field goal.
Miami (+13) over North Carolina: This is a lot of points to give a Miami team that is 2-0 since Al Golden was fired. North Carolina is coming off a huge win over Duke but I don’t think their offense will put up the numbers needed to cover this large spread.
Baylor (-2.5) over Oklahoma: This is my strongest pick of the week in college football. I feel like we are getting a bargain with Baylor because freshman Jarrett Stidham is playing for the Bears. I think this line would be close to a touchdown if Seth Russell was playing so I’ll take the discounted price on a Baylor team with one of the best offenses in the country.
Arizona (+6) over Utah: Arizona has been very disappointing this season at 5-5 overall and 2-5 in the conference. Despite a poor season they can become bowl eligible with a win, which is important to a lot of programs. Utah is probably a little overvalued here especially on the road. The Utes have a lookahead game against UCLA next week, which will likely decide who wins the Pac-12 South.
Over 58 in South Carolina vs Tennessee: It looks like Tennessee’s offense is hitting their stride and South Carolina has trouble stopping anyone on defense.
TCU (-4.5) over Oklahoma State: I already hit the over on the Oklahoma State win total but will pick against them at home. TCU has the best player on the field in Trevone Boykin and I think they will win by a touchdown in a shootout.
Arkansas (+10.5) over Ole Miss: Not sure if Arkansas can win straight up but don’t trust the Ole Miss offense to be favored by double-digits. Bret Bielema and the Razorbacks will embrace the underdog role.
Arizona State (+2.5) over Washington State: This is a letdown game for Washington State after falling to Stanford in heartbreaking fashion. Arizona State has two extra days of rest and think they will win straight up.
North Carolina State (+10) over Clemson
Auburn (+7.5) over Ole Miss
Texas Tech (+3) over Oklahoma State
Kentucky (+8.5) over Tennessee
Indiana (+16.5) over Michigan State: Michigan State is coming off a huge win over Michigan. Traditional letdown spot here and Indiana has an above average offense with Nate Sudfeld under center. Michigan State is 1-6 against the spread with their only cover coming last week as underdogs.
USC (-3.5) over Utah: The 3-3 unranked team is favorite over the undefeated No. 3 team in the country. There’s usually a reason for that and I’ll side with the more talented USC team.
Arkansas (-6.5) over Auburn: Arkansas is coming off a bye and Auburn isn’t very good on either side of the ball. I think the Razorbacks will be prepared and have a big day running the ball.
Sticking with those three picks for now. I will tweet out added picks between now and Saturday.
Won’t be making picks on the site for Week 7 of college football and Week 6 of the NFL. Look at my Twitter timeline (@natejacobson1) for any picks I make throughout the weekend. Will be back next week for full picks with analysis.
My Week 6 picks in college football. Check out a writeup for each pick on Fansided.
Georgia Tech (+7) over Clemson
Conference play is in full swing and I have four best bets for Saturday. Read the full writeup of each pick on Fansided.
Arkansas (+6.5) over Tennessee
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