NFL: Week 11 Picks

Colts (+6) over Falcons

Packers (+1) over Vikings

Broncos (-1) over Bears

Bengals (+4.5) over Cardinals

Patriots (-7) over Bills

Jets vs Colts Pick

The Colts host the Jets on Monday night and both teams started the season very differently. The Colts played a poor game against a Bills team that could be a playoff contender. I wouldn’t put too much stock into that result because Buffalo is a tough place to play. The Colts return home and Andrew Luck has a lot of success playing in Indianapolis.

The Jets cruised past the Browns 31-10 but only outgained Cleveland 333-321. New York forced five turnovers and had some short fields to work with on their touchdown drives. Now they take a step up in class and go on the road. I saw that the advanced line for this game last week was Colts (-9.5) so there is definitely some line value here. I think the Colts should be favorited by 7.5 points so I will take them to cover.

Pick: Colts (-6.5) over Jets

NFL: Conference Championship Preview and Props

Packers at Seahawks -7.5

The only question in this game is how healthy is Aaron Rodgers? The Packers quarterback looked more comfortable as the game went on against Dallas but the Seahawks defense is much stronger the the Cowboys. I think there is a slight overreaction to this line with the Rodgers injury but don’t feel comfortable picking against Seattle at home. I would pass on picking this game but like the following props:

Aaron Rodgers UNDER 260.5 total passing yards: I think the Packers are going to run the ball early to make sure their defense stays off the field. Rodgers is banged up and the Seahawks have an elite secondary.

James Starks OVER 15.5 total rushing yards: This is a little risky because Starks is the backup but I think the Packers will need to use two running backs if they want to run the ball. Eddie Lacy was limited in practice earlier this week so there’s a better chance of Starks getting touches.

Marshawn Lynch OVER 87.5 total rushing yards: The Packers defense allowed 123 yards to an injured Demarco Murray last round. Lynch has 110 yards on 20 carries against the Packers in Week 1. Expect Lynch to have another 20+ carry, 100+ yard outing.

Luke Wilson OVER 27.5 total receiving yards and OVER 2.5 receptions: The Packers allowed six receptions and 71 yards to Jason Witten last week. I don’t trust the Seahawks wide receivers and Wilson is becoming a bigger part of Seattle’s offense.

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NFL: Week 11 Picks

Here are my Week 11 NFL picks and the rest of the contest picks:

Texans (+3.5) over Browns

Chiefs (pick) over Seahawks

Bengals (+7.5) over Saints

Packers (-6) over Eagles

Patriots (+3) over Colts

Contest Picks  Continue reading

NFL: Week 7 Picks

Started 0-1 in contest picks for the week. Here are the rest of my Week 7 NFL picks:

Bengals at Colts (-3)

My line: Colts -2.5

Pick: Colts

Titans at Redskins (-6)

My line: Redskins -4

Pick: Pass (Contest: Titans)

Dolphins at Bears (-3.5)

My line: Bears -4.5

Pick: Pass (Bears)

Browns (-6) at Jaguars

My line: Browns -4

Pick: Jaguars

 

Seahawks (-7) at Rams

My line: Seahawks -6.5

Pick: Pass (Seahawks)

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Colts vs Texans Preview

Big AFC South showdown on Thursday night when Indianapolis travels to Houston. I don’t have an official pick for this game and want to explain my reasoning. The Colts are a three-point favorite on the road. If you take away Houston’s home field advantage then Indianapolis would be a 5.5 or six-point favorite. It would make them over a touchdown favorite if this game was at Lucas Oil Stadium, and that line would be way too high and never get posted. So there is definitely value on the Texans here who I think would be a two-point underdog on a neutral field against the Colts.

The problem with Houston is they are coming off an overtime game in Dallas on a short week. The Texans allowed 75 plays to the Cowboys, and you have to wonder if the defense will be tired on Thursday night. The Colts dominated the Ravens statistically on Sunday and ran 80 plays of their own.

The value is on the Texans but the situation favors the Colts. That’s why I wouldn’t pick this game but would take the Texans +3 in a contest. I will be posting my college football and NFL picks either Thursday night or Friday morning this week.