Six Teams I’m Looking to Bet Against Early in the NFL Season

After months of research and reading, I’m ready to reveal some of my NFL thoughts for the 2018 season. I’ll start with teams I’m looking to bet against early in the season. That can include under the season win total, bets against teams in individual regular season games or both. I also looked closely at the yes/no props to make the playoffs that are posted for each team, which is something new for me this season.

Before starting, I have a few things to say about the Buffalo Bills. I bet Bills under 6.5 wins in early July. The most popular win total bet I saw people talk about earlier this summer was Bills under 7 or 6.5 wins. Then LeSean McCoy was involved in domestic violence allegations and the win total went down to 6. I still think they go under 6 but understand if people want to stay away now that some of the value has been extracted. Everything lines up for the Bills to be an under team this season. They made the playoffs for the first time in 18 years. They traded quarterback Tyrod Taylor, and signed A.J. McCarron and drafted Josh Allen. I’m not sold on McCarron as a NFL starter and Allen had accuracy concerns in college. The offensive weapons in Buffalo are limited and the defense benefitted from turnover luck last season. The Bills have road games against the Ravens, Vikings and Packers in September with a Week 2 home opener against the Chargers in between. If the Bills have a poor record to start the season, I’m guessing they’ll start Allen and become an even worse team. I can see the Bills finishing with the worst record in the NFL but they’re already being priced as one of the bottom teams in the league.

Jaguars- When looking to identify teams that I want to bet against, I tend to look at teams who greatly exceeded expectations the previous year. The Jacksonville Jaguars had a win total of 6.5 after winning three games in 2016. They won 10 games last season and now their win total has increased by 2.5 games to 9. Under 9 will be a bet for me. Jacksonville’s defense is an amazing unit but I don’t believe in Blake Bortles and Leonard Fournette’s numbers were inflated by breaking off a few long runs. The Jaguars benefitted from Deshaun Watson and Andrew Luck not starting against them in both games, and Texans and Colts will be a lot better than they were last season. I’m undecided if I want to bet against the Jaguars in Week 1, where they are a 3.5-point favorite at the New York Giants, but I’ll be looking to fade them in other spots early in the season.

Verdict: Jaguars under 9 is a strong bet and also betting against them in several early season games. Continue reading

NFL Week 2 Picks and Leans

I talked up the Redskins earlier in the week and I will stick with them as an official pick and my best bet in Week 2. I think there has been an overreaction to the Rams performance against the Colts, and a lot of negative sentiment towards the Redskins. My line has Washington as a one-point favorite so we are getting line value too. Unfortunately, the spread has stood pat at +2.5 and I was hoping to get a full field goal with backing the Redskins. If you can buy a half-point to get it there then I would recommend doing that.

The Titans are my other official pick so far and I explained why I like them in this Facebook post.

I’m very tempted to make the Eagles a pick this week and will probably do it if I can get +6 with Philadelphia against the Kansas City Chiefs. I made this game Chiefs -3 so I think there is value but I have a few worries with backing the Eagles. One worry is that Andy Reid is facing his former team so he will have a great game plan especially with a few extra days to prepare. My other concern is the Eagles just beat a division rival in the Redskins and have another NFC East foe in the Giants next week so this scheduling spot isn’t ideal. If I end up picking the Eagles I will tweet out an official pick so stay tuned. Continue reading

NFL: Week 7 Picks

Started 0-1 in contest picks for the week. Here are the rest of my Week 7 NFL picks:

Bengals at Colts (-3)

My line: Colts -2.5

Pick: Colts

Titans at Redskins (-6)

My line: Redskins -4

Pick: Pass (Contest: Titans)

Dolphins at Bears (-3.5)

My line: Bears -4.5

Pick: Pass (Bears)

Browns (-6) at Jaguars

My line: Browns -4

Pick: Jaguars

 

Seahawks (-7) at Rams

My line: Seahawks -6.5

Pick: Pass (Seahawks)

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NFL: Standings and Over/Under Win Totals

Here are my NFL standings predictions with some over/under win totals that I like.

AFC East

1. Patriots

2. Jets

3. Dolphins

4. Bills- under 6.5 (-105)

AFC North

1. Ravens- over 8.5 (-115)

2. Steelers

3. Bengals- under 9 (-125)

4. Browns- under 6.5 (-130)

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