NFL Week 2 Picks and Leans

I talked up the Redskins earlier in the week and I will stick with them as an official pick and my best bet in Week 2. I think there has been an overreaction to the Rams performance against the Colts, and a lot of negative sentiment towards the Redskins. My line has Washington as a one-point favorite so we are getting line value too. Unfortunately, the spread has stood pat at +2.5 and I was hoping to get a full field goal with backing the Redskins. If you can buy a half-point to get it there then I would recommend doing that.

The Titans are my other official pick so far and I explained why I like them in this Facebook post.

I’m very tempted to make the Eagles a pick this week and will probably do it if I can get +6 with Philadelphia against the Kansas City Chiefs. I made this game Chiefs -3 so I think there is value but I have a few worries with backing the Eagles. One worry is that Andy Reid is facing his former team so he will have a great game plan especially with a few extra days to prepare. My other concern is the Eagles just beat a division rival in the Redskins and have another NFC East foe in the Giants next week so this scheduling spot isn’t ideal. If I end up picking the Eagles I will tweet out an official pick so stay tuned. Continue reading

NFL Picks: Early Week 1 Bets

The NFL season starts three weeks from tonight but lines for Week 1 were available hours after the NFL schedule was released in April. Here are five games that interest me the most, including four where I endorse a bet at the current number:

Titans PK vs Raiders

I’ll be fading the Raiders as much as I can and I’m high on the Titans. Maybe not as high as some but I think this is a perfect spot for Tennessee who catch the Raiders playing at 10 Pacific Time. The Titans also have revenge on their mind from a narrow loss to the Raiders last season. Look for the Tennessee offense to expose Oakland’s defense.

Buccaneers PK at Dolphins

Take this number now because it will continue to move. It looks like the Buccaneers will end up going off as a favorite by kickoff. Miami hardly has a home field advantage and I think it will take Cutler some time to get used to his new home. Tampa Bay impressed last year in Week 1 by beating the Falcons in Atlanta and I expect another strong start for Dirk Koetter’s team.

Chargers +3.5 at Broncos

I explained why I like the Chargers and why I’m looking to bet against the Broncos in my season win totals article. It’s convenient they play each other in Week 1. The bad news is people will learn how good the Chargers will be this season since this is a national TV game and we won’t get much value on them going forward.

Under 47.5 in Eagles-Redskins

Last year these two teams played in Landover and the total closed at 45. It barely went over but the Eagles scored a special teams and defensive touchdown to help the game go past the total. Now the total is higher but it’s falling a little bit, so take this as soon as possible. I think the Redskins offense will sputter early with a new offensive coordinator. On the other side, I’ll trust that Jim Schwartz’s defense will be ready for the Redskins but can’t say the same about Doug Pederson and his offense. Division games tend to be tighter and low-scoring, and think this total is set too high.

Cowboys (if it gets to -2.5 or less) vs Giants

When Ezekiel Elliott was given a six-game suspension I immediately wondered how linemakers would react to the Cowboys Week 1 affair with the Giants. Obviously Elliott is a top running back but how much off a drop-off is a fresh Darren McFadden especially since Dak Prescott proved that Dallas has a very efficient passing game. The line ended up moving slightly after the Elliott announcement to keep this spread still over a field goal. I wouldn’t get involved yet but would love to take the Cowboys giving less than a field goal against a Giants team that has an aging quarterback and lackluster run game.

NFL: Week 12 Picks

Here are my Week 12 NFL picks and the rest of the contest picks:

Under 49 in Eagles vs Titans

Lions (+7.5) over Patriots

Vikings (+9) over Packers

Bengals (+2) over Texans

Buccaneers (+6) over Bears

Chargers (-5) over Rams

Giants (+3.5) over Cowboys

Contest Picks  Continue reading

NFL: Week 4 Picks

Started the week 0-1 after picking the Redskins on Thursday. I thought the dominance of home teams on Thursday nigh would continue. Instead the road team grabbed an early lead and the Redskins never threatened. Here are the rest of my Week 4 picks and contest picks:

Dolphins (-4) vs. Raiders in London

My line: Dolphins -4.5

Analysis: The Raiders have already taken cross-country trips to New York and New England. Now they are in a different continent after a great effort against the Patriots. I don’t think the Raiders will repeat their Week 3 performance and the Dolphins will bounce back after two straight losses.

Pick: Dolphins

Packers (-2) at Bears 

My line: Bears -1

Analysis: The Bears should be the favorite at home. The Packers are desperate for a victory and the Bears are coming off two primetime wins so not a great scheduling situation.

Pick: Pass (Contest: Bears)

Bills at Texans (-3)

My line: Texans -3.5

Analysis: This will be a low-scoring game. E.J. Manuel will struggle against the Texans defense.

Pick: Pass (Texans)

Continue reading